July 08, 2004

Millwood for Morris: Inside the numbers

The Phillies reportedly have had talks about a trade that would send Kevin Millwood to St. Louis for Matt Morris. On the surface, this looks like a good deal for the Phillies: Morris is 9-6 with a 4.33 ERA, Millwood is 6-5 with a 5.07 ERA. So why would the Cardinals, who are making a strong push in the NL Central, make this deal.

BIPA Balls In Play Average: Batting Average Against, not including home runs or strikeouts.

DIPS ERA: A pitcher's ERA, independent of the defense behind him. This formula, based on essays by Voros McCracken, assumes that all pitchers have consistent BIPA (See Above), and adjusts accordingly. The DIPS ratios on ESPN (the ones I’ve used here) use the DIPS 2.0 formula, are not park-adjusted, and do not adjust for knuckleball pitchers.


At 3:02 PM, Blogger will travel said...

Morris must be damaged goods or why would the Cards want to rid themselves of him as they fight for the title. Maybe take a flier on Benson, but also ditch cry-baby Wooten for any major league pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, or an AAA pitcher with an ERA under3.50. Wooten has not hit for the Phils nor hit at SWB this year. He came from Indy ball, he should be grateful of the chances he got. And finally Geary can go. Powell has won the mop-up role. Do we need 2 mop-ups? Josh Hancock has pitched OK lately.

At 12:56 PM, Blogger Malone said...

The DIPS ERA shows that Millwood is just unlucky, if you believe the theory that pitchers cannot control where a ball is hit.


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