Berks Phillies Fans

A word from Ferris

2005-05-21T07:49:00.000-04:00

BPF moves to Beerleaguer.com!

2005-05-17T00:24:00.000-04:00

Today I'm pleased to announce the launch of my new Web site, Beerleaguer.com.

Though the name has changed, you'll find the same great Phillies features you've come to expect on Berks Phillies Fans, which concludes with this final post. The old girl did me well, but I'm confident you'll like the new site even better.

So come along, update your links and RSS feeds, spread the word and enjoy!

- Jason Weitzel
Beerleaguer.com

New site launches tomorrow!

2005-05-16T09:58:00.000-04:00

The BPF is pleased to announce some rather big news.

Tomorrow morning, Berks Phillies Fans is going live with a new Web site, including a complete design makeover, URL and, most importantly, a name change. I worked a long, sleepless weekend to finalize the project and I’m extremely excited to unveil it.

I’ll have more details tomorrow. For now, enjoy the Phillies day off and say goodbye to BPF as you now know it!

Note to BPF readers

2005-05-15T00:36:00.000-04:00

Due to some major site reconstruction, which should be completed by Monday morning, I will be on posting hiatus for the next few days. Check back Monday for my thoughts on the Phils, their Saturday night loss, and the Marlon Byrd, Endy Chavez trade.

Thanks!

Did you know?

2005-05-13T13:35:00.000-04:00

If former Astros General Manager Gerry Hunsicker replaces Ed Wade, he will be reunited with the player that represents perhaps his poorest move with Houston – losing Bobby Abreu to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 1997 expansion draft.

In a bit, I’ll have a full report card of the man many people desire as the Phils new GM.

Tidbits from the Phlogosphere

2005-05-13T11:28:00.000-04:00

Today's best stuff from elitist Phillies nerds and their computers.

The incredible dedication of the BPF
Last night, I saw, heard and read about the Phils game five different ways, all live: Watching it on a hospital TV, listening to 830-AM radio then switching to 1210 AM radio, reading about it on Balls Sticks & Stuff live in-game chat, and concluding my evening by watching them lose on my television at home.

In addition, I experienced the game in four different counties: Lehigh, Berks, Montgomery and Chester.

Lastly, I witnessed the game in two different states of being: awake and asleep.

Base running
What stood out most in yesterday’s 7-5 loss, other than the general fact they lost a game at home to the Reds even with Jon Lieber on the mound, were the base running mistakes that seem to be happening with great frequency this season.

Tom Goodman from Swing and a Miss today:

Atrocious. There is no other word to describe the Phillies base running.

Playing aggressively is fine…if you can pull it off. The Phillies can’t. Being thrown out at the plate is not the end of the world…once in a while. But the Phillies are routinely being thrown out trying to stretch singles into doubles. Furthermore, with increasingly rare exception they are being thrown out stealing. Worst of all, they are being picked off at an astonishing rate. Hapless? Hardly. Wretched? Definitely. This team cannot do many things right, especially the fundamentals.

Marc Bombard and Bill Dancy, veteran minor league managers but rookies coaching first and third base, can share some of the blame. Burrell was out by a good 10 feet or more trying to stretch out a double yesterday.

Minor league catcher goofs
Charlie Manuel isn’t the only one making mistakes when it comes to the Phillies these days. And when it comes to flubs about minor league catchers, it hits the BPF especially hard.

Brain Peoples at the Philling Station points out two pretty big goofs in today’s Philly papers that make this blog look pretty good.

The first is a bad one. Bill Conlin wrote today in his Daily News column "Deconstruction Project" the Phillies should consider trading Jim Thome and his big salary to the Yankees for catching prospect Dioner Navarro.

I'd be all for that move, if Navarro wasn’t traded to the D-Backs in the blockbuster Randy Johnson deal this winter, and then subsequently dealt to the Dodgers in the blockbuster Shawn Green deal. The veteran writer also spelled “Dioner” wrong.

The next isn't nearly as bad. Sam Carchidi of the Inquirer brings up BPF favorite Carlos Ruiz as possible replacements for Mike Lieberthal. Ruiz sustained a broken leg in a home plate collision a week ago.

Both catchers were reported accurately this week on the BPF, with the Navarro trade first reported in my December 18 blog, where, like Conlin, I spelled "Dioner" wrong.

Hey, we're only human.

On GM
Finally, Tom G. at Balls Sticks & Stuff sums up my feelings perfectly on selecting the right general manager, commenting on rumors Ed Wade could be fired:

My only criteria would be that the eventual general manager would have a proven winning philosophy. It can be of the number crunching variety or the Twins-ish scouting variety or somewhere in between, but he has to come from a lineage that has a winning history.

The concept Tom and I both agree on is there is no single correct philosophy to build a winning team. Stat heads, like Theo Epstein in Boston, or scout heads, like John Schuerholz in Atlanta, are both great models to emulate because they are both proven winners.

Phils-Brewers wrap: Manuel feeling heat

2005-05-12T04:35:00.000-04:00

As the Phillies pass the symbolic 35 game mark, the Brewers series will be remembered as the point Phillies fans added Charlie Manuel to the list.

Yesterday's 5-2 loss was preceded by Manuel's reported comments to the media revealing his ignorance managing in the National League, and also admitting he needed to play Chase Utley more. Manuel followed up by sitting Utley yesterday, and then kept Cory Lidle in the game too long, outlasting his usefulness by the eighth inning.

The loss put the Phils 6 1/2 back of first-place Atlanta as the Phils wasted a career-high 11 strikeouts from Lidle.

As the downward spiral continues, words repeatedly heard on sports radio to describe Manuel include "buffoon," "overmatched," and the always popular “worst manager in franchise history." Even I was feeling downright nostalgic for Larry Bowa yesterday, looking comparatively eloquent and upper-crust in his new gig on Baseball Tonight.

To the defense of both men, the team bestowed upon them is no prize. This is no small point: A team that has David Bell (.224 BA, .313 SLG) batting out of the five-hole is a bad baseball team. A team that has Jimmy Rollins (.237 BA, .289 OBP) as a leadoff hitter is a bad baseball team. The fact that Bowa managed to get better than .500 ball out of this lot should have warranted a lifetime contract instead of a pink slip.

When so many parts are playing this poorly, it tells me there's something wrong with the heart and passion of the team. Under Bowa, a fearless competitor and perfectionist, the team often came up flat, but seem to be playing with even less desire under jolly Cholly.

Compounding the issue, there hasn’t been much rhyme or reason to his decision making, aside from his steadfast use of, among other things, Tim Worrell in the set-up role and Jose Offerman getting all the pinch-hit chances. After a mostly favorable review the first week or two, his gut instinct has been mostly wrong since – pulling pitchers too soon, leaving them in too long, pinch hitting with the wrong guy, and the list goes on.

These decisions are open to speculation, and regarding the platoon issue, I maintain Placido Polanco will hit LHP better than Chase Utley. The gripe now, of course, is Utley's bat has been the most consistent all season, and a lineup that features both Polanco and David Bell gives the Phils one too many light-hitting bats. With Pat Burrell hitting .211 in May, there are plenty of those to go around.

At this point, all the possibilities have been thoroughly exhausted (Howard, Byrd, Floyd) except one: a trade.

It's important for the Phils to deal Polanco sooner rather than later. Why? The answer is the same as the answer to Manuel's question: What is this team about 35 games into the season?

It's about Polanco, forcing him into the lineup, and a ridiculous, lingering distraction over a player who shouldn't have been on the team in the first place.

Ex-Phil report: Nick Punto

2005-05-11T14:51:00.000-04:00

The former Phillie, part of the Eric Mitlon trade last winter, was recently named Minnesota’s official starting second baseman.

In the his first game since replacing Luis Rivas at second yesterday, he got a key infield single in the eighth inning with the Twins down 4-3, stole second base, advanced to third on passed ball, and crossed home with the tying run on a sac fly. The Twins went on to beat the Orioles 6-4.

Punto was never considered a top prospect coming through the Phils system, following a path similar to fellow switch-hitting utilityman Tomas Perez. The 27-year-old played parts of three seasons (2001-03) with the Phils before the Milton trade that also sent pitcher Carlos Silva to the Twins.

In 68 ABs this season, Punto is batting .235, .313 OBP, .324 SLG.

Pitching for breakfast

2005-05-11T09:37:00.000-04:00

A few pitching morsels to start your day.

Phils face junkball LHP Davis today
The Phillies can still salvage a series win tonight against the Brewers but need to beat tough left-hander Doug Davis.

Davis, a lifetime 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in two career outings against the Phils, is exactly the type of pitcher the Phils struggle against – a southpaw who mixes off-speed pitches with a tough cutter inside to right-handers.

Davis (3-4) has had a tough start to the season, with an ERA of 5.40, 22 walks and seven homers.

His opponent today has given up just one homer this season, Cory Lidle, who’s coming off his best outing – a four-hit, one-run game against Chicago.

It should be a great matchup this afternoon featuring two unheralded pitchers.

Millwood proving worth
What do Brett Myers and Kevin Millwood have in common?

Answer: They’re both walking examples of why win/loss records don't measure a pitcher's true worth.

Phillies bloggers universally agreed this winter that Kevin Millwood would have a pretty good season somewhere, and have better success than free agent counterpart Eric Milton. On Monday night, Millwood (1-3) finally got his first win, holding the Angels to one hit in eight innings.

Though his record doesn't reflect it, the former Phils ace has been steady for the Tribe. Like the Phils behind Myers, the Indians haven’t offered much support with the lumber, averaging 3.3 runs in games Millwood has started.

According to Sheldon Ocker of the Beacon Journal, Millwood has targeted his pitches accurately all season, and sixty-five percent of his pitches have been thrown for strikes, which some baseball people will say is the ideal figure.

Meanwhile, Milton has been dreadful for the Reds, posting a 6.18 ERA and surrendering 13 HRs already. Milton isn’t the kind of guy you want pitching at Great American Ballpark. So why did the Reds sign him to a three-year, $25.5 million contract?

Who the hell knows?

BPF sheds chooch-sized tear

2005-05-10T15:01:00.000-04:00

Passing along information for those of you that don't know: BPF favorite, catcher Carlos Ruiz, suffered a broken leg in a home-plate collision with Mike Kinkade during Friday night's loss to Buffalo.

Strangely enough, the collision represented an weird, cosmic clashing of two players my stepfather and I like for odd reasons: Ruiz and Kinkade.

Ruiz is neat because he's tiny, unheralded, but can also slug and throw out base runners. Martin likes Kinkade because he spent the good part of a Japanese baseball vacation with Kinkade's family, who were visiting the former Dodger utility man while he played for the Hanshin Tigers last season.

Polanco, Howard to Dodgers?

2005-05-10T14:27:00.000-04:00

Tom Goyne at Balls Sticks & Stuff (no doubt listening to the new Dave Matthews Band CD at this very moment) has passed along a report in the Los Angeles Times that the Dodgers may be exploring a deal with the Phils for Placido Polanco and Ryan Howard.

The Times reported the Dodgers have grown increasingly dissatisfied with their defense at the hot corner, since Jose Valentin has been sidelined with a knee injury, and GM Paul DePodesta has embarked on a search for a proven veteran.

BPF Take
No matter what deal is made, the Phillies must get deeper and younger in certain areas. There’s no way the Phils won’t receive a third base prospect should this deal happen, addressing perhaps their weakest area throughout the organization. The Times reported the Dodgers have several excellent prospects at third base: Willie Aybar, Joel Guzman, Andy LaRoche and Blake Dewitt.

Pitcher Edwin Jackson, the Dodgers No. 1 prospect according to Baseball America, and Dioner Navarro, a 2004 No. 1 catching prospect with the Yankees, are the two prospects that jumped to my mind first. Both players are struggling this season in Triple-A Las Vegas, so DePodesta could bite on a deal to include one of those two. Young catching is always at a premium, and though Navarro’s stock has dropped, a deal for the switch-hitter would be a major boost.

Though critics might argue the Phils would be conceding the season by making this deal, even contending teams make deals for prospects from time to time, something the Phils haven't done in quite a while.

Thanks for the tip, Tom, and enjoy your Dave album.

Play the Phillies blame game

2005-05-10T11:35:00.000-04:00

Who deserves most of the blame for the Phillies slow start? Voting has already started on the new Phils instant poll, with early signs indicating there's plenty of blame to go around.

Share your thoughts in the comments thread below. This one should be interesting.

Phils-Cubs series wrap

2005-05-09T11:20:00.002-04:00

The Phillies fall to Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs Sunday, but exit Wrigley with a 2-1 series win. The Phils look to build on great pitching from Cory Lidle, Jon Lieber and Brett Myers, and hope to improve their frazzled offense when they open a series tonight in Milwaukee.

Pitching
Yesterday marked the first time I’ve seen Carlos Zambrano outside of SportCenter highlights, and he couldn’t have been more impressive. The worst mismatch was Zambrano vs. Ryan Howard. Welcome to the big leagues, Mr. Howard. Zambrano got the kid to chase several outside breaking pitches, resulting in weak Steve Jeltz-like dribblers. No need to call on your bullpen when you have a guy like Zambrano – 138 pitches, 88 of them for strikes. The performance was just what the doctor ordered to snap the Cubbies 7-game skid.

Brett Myers continues to be a walking-talking example of why win/loss records don’t measure a pitcher’s true worth. Myers is 2-2, and pitched brilliantly yet again, proving his hot start is no fluke.

Counting yesterday’s performance, I’d put Myers on the short list of the best pitchers in the NL this season, including Mike Hampton, Dontrelle Willis, Roger Clemens, Tim Hudson, John Patterson, A.J. Burnett and teammate Jon Lieber.

With even an average offense, I’m certain the Phillies would be right in the NL mix, but ...

The offense stinks
Among teams in the NL:
OBP (.331, 12th)
SLG (.362, 16th, last behind Pittsburgh with .382)
Runs (127, 14th)
AVG (.245, 16th, last behind Astros with .246)
HR (24, 14th)
AVG w/ scoring position (.238, 13th)
SLG w/ scoring position (.357, last, among leaders in this category early in season)
BB (126, 3rd!, as they wait for the PERFECT pitch to hit into play ... less than 25 percent of the time).

Here’s the lineup Zambrano and the Cubs needed to beat yesterday:

J. Rollins (.237)
C. Utley(.300)
P. Polanco (.241)
B. Abreu (.278)
D. Bell (.229)
R. Howard (.071)
M. Byrd (.500)
T. Pratt (.174)
B. Myers

Polanco
Don’t think for a second that Charlie Manuel’s decision to play Placido Polanco in left and bat him third yesterday was a random act. The Phillies made every effort to showcase Poly in front of the Cubs this series, a possible suitor for the displaced and disgruntled second baseman.

After a red-hot spring, Polanco hasn’t carried that momentum forward. He was robbed a number of times this series, but overall, his general lack of power – a measly .280 SLG – isn’t what I’d call a solid option to hit third or even second.

In our Polanco / Utley poll, I voted in favor of the platoon, but right now I’d vote for additional ABs for Chase Utley against LHP, unless it's Mike Hampton or someone of that caliber. I still think Polanco is a better option against most LHP, but Manuel should move to get Utley more ABs because he's basically their third-best power option right now.

The rest
Like Poly, there are too many others in this lineup, top to bottom, putting up anemic numbers, providing no power whatsoever and not driving in runners on base. How’s this for a stat: David Bell has nine extra-base hits this season, but only nine runs.

The wasteful ABs start at the top. Jimmy Rollins has been a poor table-setter, only reaching base to the tune of .285 OBP. Earlier I asked readers which NL East shortstop would have the best season, and the majority voted for J-Roll. Right now, he’s tied with Rafael Furcal in VORP with a 4.2 rating. They’re both not getting their fleet rear-ends on base, with Furcal posting a slightly better .295 OBP.

Health
The Phillies need Jim Thome back, and I’m hoping his early struggles were due to this isolated back injury. I’m a Howard supporter, but I’ll reiterate my position on the big slugging prospect: Jim Thome is unquestionably the best option at first base, and the right move regarding Howard would have been to trade him this winter. He’s blocked out of a starting spot, and his stock might never be higher than it was after 46 minor league homers. But since they have him, and with the offense struggling, he should stay on the rest of the season. With injuries, his bat won't collect cobwebs.

The Phils also need Kenny Lofton back, as the center field platoon with Jason Michaels represents one of the only offensive bright spots this season. He’s no peach in the field, but his .938 OPS, in limited chances, is still tops on the team.

Baby steps

2005-05-08T09:15:00.000-04:00

Benefiting from back-to-back strong outings from Cory Lidle and Jon Lieber, the last-place Phillies get exacly what they needed - two wins against the struggling Cubs, losers of their last seven.

The bad news for the Phils: They've gained no ground in the NL East, where every team is riding a two-game winning streak or more.

But the Phightins know they must start somewhere. Exploiting the Cubs weakness - their bullpen - has been the logical first step.

Meanwhile, the Phils pen has been the as-advertised strength, as the new set-up / closer combo of Ryan Madson and Billy Wagner looks ... not perfect, but formidable. Madson, in particular, was money yesterday, notching two key strikeouts and bailing the Phils out of a tight spot in the eighth.

With Mads and Wags in back, the Phils can proceed with confidence to win close games. Who knew removing Tim Worrell from the equation could be such a simple answer? With Cormier back in the fold, they have three solid options.

Cory Lidle and Jon Lieber

I don't have the opportunity to use my Lidle paragraph template because he pitched longer than six innings Friday. He was excellent, baffling Cubs hitters with his changeup and sinker. Lidle has only allowed one home run all season, and with the wind blowing out at Wrigley, his performance was even more remarkable.

If Lidle is a "No. 5," he's among the best fives in baseball, earning about $3 million this season, also making him one of the better bargains out there.

As for Jon Lieber, he was just as good yesterday, surrendering only a homer to Cory Patterson in the first inning.

Unlike Lidle, Lieber has given up an unusually high amount of homers (8), but it's hard to complain. The way he bores down on left-handers inside is amazing, and it's a treat watching a pitcher work as fast as he does.

Offense
The biggest concern is still their offense, and though they've won two straight, they continue to display some disconcerting trends. Namely, Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell are striking out a lot. It's pretty simple: If the heart of the order strikeouts out, the offense will struggle to score runs.

I've rarely seen a player look like he's thinking more at the plate than Pat the Bat, and when it looks like he's laboring, that's when you get Ks like the one he took in his last AB yesterday. Geesh. Even my back hurt after watching that wrenching cut.

Robinson Tejeda by the numbers

2005-05-06T16:21:00.000-04:00

The 23-year-old pitcher gets the call from Scranton as Tim Worrell will spend 15 days on the DL.

● Tejeda is definitely a strikeout pitcher, trying to shake off control problems that have haunted him over his career. He ranked fourth in the Eastern League in strikeouts last season with 133, but also surrendered the fifth-most walks with 59.

● Prone to give up the long ball. He set a Reading club record by allowing 29 homers, which also lead the Eastern League.

● He’s young, 23, but is in his seventh season with the organization and is one of several R-Phils that emerged from relative obscurity last season. He originally signed with the Phils as an amateur free agent in 1998.

● Having a very good season so far in Triple-A Scranton, posting a 2.22 ERA, but more importantly, has a 28-13 strikeout to walk ratio and has surrendered no home runs for the Barons.

... and falling to pieces

2005-05-06T15:40:00.000-04:00

The AP is reporting that reliever Tim Worrell asked the Philadelphia Phillies to place him on the 15-day disabled list because of "personal psychological issues."

The wish was granted by general manager Ed Wade. His spot will be replaced by righthander Robinson Tejeda, who pitched in Reading last season.

In a statement released by the team, the move opens the door to speculation.

"I called Ed Wade last night to tell him that I am dealing with some personal psychological issues that I need to resolve," Worrell said. "They are affecting my family life and my ability to do my job. I am going to deal with these issues and I hope to resolve them as quickly as possible. I appreciate the Phillies' understanding and their pledge of confidentiality."

In 11 innings, Worrell has an ERA of 9.82. He gave up three runs in one inning of relief in his most recent outing.

BPF take
Worrell’s self-removal gives the Phillies a better chance to win games.

An organization in shambles

2005-05-06T12:02:00.000-04:00

Instead of a Mets series recap, I'd rather talk about the issue on everyone's mind, the overall state of the Phillies organization. Here's my take:

General manager
Rewarding home-grown talent like Pat Burrell, Mike Lieberthal and Randy Wolf with lucrative, overreaching, overly-loyal, long-term deals will become Ed Wade's bitter legacy with the Phillies.

Along with spending big money for established, older veterans, like Jim Thome, David Bell and Jon Lieber, Wade's formula built a dinosaur that's stagnating, falling further past its prime, and giving young players, like Brett Myers and Jimmy Rollins, reason to follow Scott Rolen out of town.

If rebuilding is the answer - as we should know if it is by the end of this month - the long-term deals have handcuffed immediate efforts to transition to that stage, as teams like the Oakland Athletics are able to do frequently.

With payroll at an all-time high $93 million, and with attendance at their new state-of-art facility dropping nightly by the thousands, baring a miraculous turnaround, things may only get worse.

Farm system
What goes unnoticed is a farm system largely devoid of major-league talent, as a handful of prospects - Marlon Byrd and others - have failed to transition to the next level. In Double-A Reading, they're fielding a squad of older retreads. Aside from a hidden gem or two, the strategy runs a high risk of creating a huge talent void for the next two seasons, perhaps more.

May 6
The rest of this road trip is vitally important. Day to day, the biggest concern is which aspect of their game will fail them next. Will it be the offense, averaging around three runs a game, or will a starting pitcher, like Padilla or Wolf, open the floodgates? Maybe the bullpen, ranking second worst in the National League with an ERA of 6.06, will fail them tonight.

At 12-17, they are 5 1/2 games out of first-place Atlanta, a team that's really starting to click. Between the cellar and ceiling are three capable teams.

Rebuilding
This offseason, I thought if they could get a legitimate number one starter they had a shot to contend this season, otherwise, they should move aggressively to shed their big contracts. Jon Lieber has lived up to that billing. The problem is, the staff is getting about two and a half quality starts each turn through the rotation, along with the rest of the problems I mentioned before.

An asset they have this season they haven't had in the past are expendable chips other teams covet. The problem: the teams willing to spend don't have the goods to give in return.

Off to their worst start since 1991, the Yankees could really use a versatile infielder (Placido Polanco) and a left-handed starter (Randy Wolf). What the Phils could use most, in my estimation, is a third base prospect, with Bell getting older and the team losing confidence in one-time top prospect Juan Richardson.

The Cubs offense is a real mess, and the two teams have already talked about a deal involving Placido Polanco. There's rumor the Phils are holding on to Polanco to make a major deadline package move with Ryan Howard. Unless they're two games in back of Atlanta for first, any deal for Howard should include third base, shortstop or catching prospects. The Phils should have a contingency plan if J-Roll decides to leave, and the tandem of Lieberthal and Pratt are the oldest in the league.

I see two problems standing in the way of a full rebuilding effort. First and foremost, the long-term contracts, and second, if Wade sticks to his guns and continues to believe this team is built to win a championship.

Either way, the grace period is over. The road trip continues 3:05 p.m. in Chicago, and when they return home in a week, its time for an honest look at where they're headed.

Seo embarrassing

2005-05-04T22:11:00.000-04:00

Back-to-back ninth-inning homers aside, the Phillies came within a David Bell single and a couple walks from hitting absolute rock bottom, as they lose to the Mets 3-2 in embarrassing fashion.

The Phillies delivered just one hit – Bell’s – over seven innings against fringe pitcher Jae Seo, who recorded a career-best eight strikeouts. (Update - following the game, Seo was demoted to Triple-A Norfolk to make room for Kris Benson returing from the DL.)

Last night’s loss represented a chronic trend of following an offensive explosion with futility, generating three hits and two runs after Tuesday’s 10-3 win. The Phils waited until the ninth inning to get on the board, with back-to-back home runs by Chase Utley and Bobby Abreu off closer Braden Looper. Pat Burrell and Jason Michaels each had a chance to keep the rally alive but struck out.

Cliff Floyd still holds the hottest bat in the National League, smashing a head-high pitch off Randy Wolf for a round-tripper in the sixth. Then in the seventh, Floyd made a highlight-reel grab in left robbing Michaels of a two-run homer.

Completely healthy for the first time in years, Floyd is making this fantasy baseball owner kick himself, since I had Floyd last year hoping for this kind of comeback, and then passed on him this season.

I’ll have more venomous thoughts tomorrow. Until then, if you hear a loud scream roundabout the Pottstown way, just go back to bed.

Last chance to vote Utley / Polanco

2005-05-04T15:59:00.000-04:00

The poll asking whether you agree with the current Phillies second base platoon between Placido Polanco and Chase Utley will come down tomorrow, so this is your last chance to chime in on the Phillies hot-button issue.

Come on ... the answer I selected needs your vote!

Worrell degenerating earlier than expected

2005-05-04T12:34:00.000-04:00

The 37-year-old setup man has been given a number of low-pressure situations, such as last night, to right the ship, but he appears to be sailing way off course. Is it a fluke, or a sign of the inevitable?

Leading analysts, such as Baseball Prospectus, didn’t target 2005 as a year of sharp collapse for the veteran right-hander. They did, however, target next season as Worrell’s decline year, going from a projected 12.9 VORP in 2005 to a 3.3 VORP in 2006. It certainly appears that his degeneration is ahead of schedule. (*see below for an explanation of VORP)

Using PECOTA, a system that compares players to similar players over the history of baseball to draw conclusions about their future performance, Prospectus generated a 2005 projection for Worrell of around 61 innings and a 3.69 ERA.

In nine innings, Worrell has been far from reliable, allowing 17 hits for an 8.00 ERA, earning a little better defense-independent ERA of around 7.22.

The most amazing part of all this is how eerily similar his season has been to another struggling reliever, 40-year-old Steve Reed in Baltimore. Reed ranks number one on Worrell’s list of most comparable pitchers, and like Worrell, he wasn’t expected to have rapid decline until next season. (12.7 2005 VORP, and a 6.2 2006 VORP)

Here are their general stats side-by-side. It’s almost like the two got together and decided to pack it in.

2004 Steve Reed: 65 G, 3.68 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .281 BAA
2004 Tim Worrell: 77 G, 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .254 BAA

2005 Steve Reed: 9 G, 8.68 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, .341 BAA
2005 Tim Worrell: 9 G, 8.10 ERA, 2.10 WHIP, .404 BAA

Any way you crunch his future projections, the present Phillies cannot go forward with a setup man that’s allowing opponents to bat .404 against him.

VORP: Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

Epic battle spoiled

2005-05-03T09:52:00.000-04:00

Like two Jedi on opposite sides of the force, Jon Lieber and Pedro Martinez engaged in an epic battle between good and evil last night at Shea. The problem is, Charlie Manuel is no George Lucas.

Instead of letting the action resolve, finding out which warrior would prevail, he handed the lightsaber to the understudy, Terry Adams, who proved to be no Mark Hamill. With the score tied 1-1, Adams gave up a three-run blast to Carlos Beltran.

It’s a good thing some excellent summer movies are on tap, because Manuel is directing a summer stink bomb.

Tom Goyne at Balls Sticks and Stuff scripted a winner this morning. Here’s Tom’s game recap:

During the top of the seventh inning, the Phillies had a little rally going, managing to score their only run due to some aggressive base-running by Chase Utley ...

However, with two outs and a runner on second, Charlie Manuel elected to pinch-hit for Jon Lieber in an attempt to break the 1-1 tie. Jose Offerman, the pinch-hitter, failed to drive the run in, and Terry Adams was brought in to face the Mets in the bottom of the inning.

Adams then proceeded to give up a single, a walk, and then a home-run to Carlos Beltran, making it 4-1, Mets. Manuel waited for Adams to give up a single to the next batter, Cliff Floyd, before pulling Adams in favor of Geoff Geary. Geary then proceeded to let several more Mets reach base and when it didn't look like they would score, he threw a wild pitch, allowing Floyd to come home. 5-1 Mets and the Phillies never sniffed a scoring opportunity again.

After 78 pitches and matching Pedro pitch for pitch, I’m sure many Phans are wondering this morning why Manual didn’t give his ace the chance to outlast him.

By pinch hitting, they basically put the game in the hands of Offerman and the B-list bullpen, and boy did it turn into an unhappy ending. I can't imagine how Manuel thought that was going to work. With two outs, why not see if Lieber can knock in the runner from second. Crazy things happen when pitchers face pitchers in tight games.

Instead, Offerman ends the inning, and it's up to Adams or Geary (the dark side of the Phorce) to hold it, not exactly an Obi-Wan / Qui-Gon combo that has the Mets shaking in their shoes.

From Tom Goyne:

Let's face it, the Phillies bullpen is quite bad right now. Handing them a tie game in the bottom of the seventh and expecting them to hold it and get nine more scoreless outs from the opposition is unrealistic. I certainly see the temptation to drive that runner in from second, because in a pitcher's duel, every run is precious. But, when you remove Lieber for Terry Adams ... well, it's not a pitcher's duel anymore is it?

Offerman off his game
In 16 PH ABs, the pinch hit specialist Offerman is batting .188, .235 OBP and .375 SLG.

The downward spiral of Dutch

2005-05-02T12:06:00.000-04:00

My boss and fellow blogger Mike Zielinski offers a great piece on Darren Daulton today on Zeke’s Blog.

Zeke was a long-time sports writer for the Reading Eagle and continues to write online columns on pop culture, current events and sports.

Today, he writes about Dautlon's demise after the former Phillies all-star catcher was arrested recently for failure to appear in court on a probation violation. Dutch was also arrested in 2003 on a domestic battery charge.

A week later, his buddy Lenny Dykstra was accused of using steroids and gambling illegally during his baseball career.

On top of 10-14 April, it’s really been a month the Phils would rather forget, hasn't it?

Anyway, check out Zeke's site and tell him I sent you so I can earn some brownie points.

Phils-Marlins series wrap

2005-05-02T10:24:00.000-04:00

One for the road: Benefiting from a clutch five-out save from Billy Wagner, the Phillies pick up a 8-6 win at Citizen's Bank Park Sunday. Though they lost the series 2-1, the Phils created a positive springboard as they open up a 10-game road trip tonight in Queens. (AP Photo)

Picking a winner
Sunday was a great game to attend live, as I lucked into seeing best home game of the year. The weather was a little chilly and parking was a nightmare with the Sixers tipping off a half-hour earlier, but five quick runs calmed those nerves and allowed us to sit back and enjoy. You wouldn’t have known the Phils entered the game in the NL East basement from the positive attitude of the crowd. It was a great time.

The big story yesterday were some great first-inning ABs to help knock Josh Beckett out of the game early. The best was Bobby Abreu’s three-run homer, following about five 3-2 foul balls. Ironically, I had just said to my friend "Bobby likes to have the ball in a certain spot, otherwise he’ll foul off pitches by just lunging at them." The very next pitch was right in the basket and he slung it to the upper deck. That was Bobby's best AB of the season from what I saw.

The rest of the lineup showed the same patience that first inning, batting around, drawing walks, and getting hits deep into the count. With the Marlins bullpen battered, they couldn’t have picked a better time to knock a starter out early.

Perez and Pratt
The Phils fielded their Sunday afternoon favorites, Todd Pratt and Tomas Perez, and like always, they capitalized on the opportunity. Perez in particular had a career game, going 3-4 with 3 RBIs filling in for Jim Thome at first.

After the second inning, the Phillies showed a Tomas Perez career highlight reel on the big screen. I caught Tomas watching it as he slowly rolled grounders to the infield, with a little smile on his face. My sense is when he retires, fans will look back fondly on his career. As for Pratty, he went 1-4, but more importantly, they’re now 4-0 in games he’s started.

There’s certainly no reason to groan when the bench gets the call.

Cory Lidle
As for Cory Lidle ... give me a sec to go back in my achieves to copy what I wrote last week ... ah yes ... here it is:

Cory Lidle is giving the Phils exactly what was expected from him this season – about five good innings each start. Like his previous outings, things became a little unraveled in the sixth, but so far, he hasn’t been badly burned.

That about covers it.

Enter Sandman
I was certain Tim Worrell would turn it around, but yesterday was likely his last as a set-up man. Relieving Ryan Madson, who pitched two strong and will likely take over eighth-inning duties, Worrell nearly cost them the game again, giving up a double, a single and an RBI single until it was Billy Wagner time, trotting out of the bullpen to Metallica's "Enter Sandman."

It took the Sandman about four pitches to get Mike Lowell to hit into an inning-ending double play. Then he took a rare turn at bat in the bottom half and laced a single to right. In the ninth, he delivered the dagger for save number six.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the Sandman is back.

Fishy observations on a stinky team
* Mike Lowell is really struggling, grounding into two costly double plays yesterday. They had him batting seventh. Not to imply anything, but to the casual eye he looks a little leaner this season.

* Paul LoDuca is my least-favorite type of player, a total slap hitter with a high BA. He reached on a couple joke hits yesterday.

* Alex Gonzalez is probably my least favorite player in baseball. For some reason, he saves his power stroke for Phillies games, and hit a two-run shot yesterday.

* Dontrelle Willis pinch hit for Beckett in the third and smacked a sharp bouncer up the middle. On the bases, he looks like a seasoned position player, and managed to reach home. The idea he's only 23 is scary.

May 1 going on October 1

2005-05-01T10:31:00.000-04:00

Larry's last laugh: Scouts said the Phillies played tight under Larry Bowa, but this season they're laboring even more.

The hardcore award for yesterday goes to the 50 or so phans that stuck around CBP after the final two-hour delay. They must have been bloggers.

I wasn't quite as rugged, dry and at home in bed, falling asleep through the UPN-57 filler programming, including reruns of "Martin" and the "Tim McCarver Show." The game was called around midnight, ending with a 2-1 loss. In between, I flipped on "SportsCenter," watching highlights of this new and exciting baseball achievement they're calling a "home run." It's really something.

Six innings was enough to make Dontrelle Willis (5-0) baseball's first five-game winner. He hasn't given the Phils an inch this season.

Meanwhile, Vicente Padilla (0-3) had his best outing of 2005, but still looks far from the strikeout pitcher of the past, wracking up seven Ks in three starts.

So it wasn't your classic night of baseball. Even more miserable than the rain was news that Jim Thome left the game with back spasms. There's a chance he could go on the DL with rookie Ryan Howard called up to replace him. Any way you spin it, losing Thome can only mean tougher odds of winning ballgames.

One month of play feels like six. The Phils are five games back in a division that's showing early separation. Today they have their hands full when they face Josh Beckett and have a great chance to go six down before the day is over.

The challenge now, as a writer, is balancing rational thinking with impatience and emotion. Yes, the season is early, but they've done this to us before.

One reason not to panic is knowing slow starts are nothing new to many of the key players – Thome, Bobby Abreu and David Bell.

But there's something a little different this season. The excuses have been thoroughly exhausted. Larry Bowa, the most convenient excuse for underachieving, is gone, and pitching coach Joe Kerrigan is gone.

One central theme I wanted to carry forth in 2005 was the idea that winning rests squarely on the shoulders of the players. This is basically the same team picked to win the division last year, and picked by some to win it this season.

No matter what critics say about the job GM Ed Wade has done assembling the parts, the Phils are fielding a core group that should compete, one that should average more than three runs a game, playing under the field boss they wanted. While Wade is sure to be gone if they fail to reach the postseason, 2005 is all about Thome, Abreu, Burrell, Rollins, Lieberthal and Bell.

I've been wrong on a number of preseason statements, but none more than this one: Under Charlie Manuel, the Phillies will stay loose all season.

With fans taking no prisoners, they’re even tighter, and playing even worse, and not even Charlie can save them.

Killing time with stats

2005-04-29T16:14:00.000-04:00

Watching the clock and waiting to go home? Join the club. Here are some stats to make the time go faster. Read them twice, there's only four of them.

* Bobby Abreu has the lowest double play rate in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus. He hasn’t hit into one this season, earning a –2.98 rating, whatever that means. Plenty of other hitters haven’t hit into DPs this season, but according to their numbers, the way Abreu is playing he has the best chance at not hitting into one.

* Rheal Cormier has faced the third best collection of hitters this season, with hitters averaging 0.298 BA, 0.369 OBP, 0.467 SLG.

* Former Phillie Carlos Silva is ranked second best in baseball in double play rate for pitchers, according to Baseball Prospectus. He’s gotten hitters to hit into six of them.

* If the season would end today, Colorado’s Clint Barmes would be a unanimous choice for NL Rookie of the Year. He’s pulling a 15.3 VORP, with the next best Victor Diaz of the Mets with 10.9.

Rolen retrospective

2005-04-29T08:58:00.000-04:00

Mailing it in: For something quick to chew on this morning, here's a little piece I wrote on Scott Rolen for a promotional R-Phils poster, which will run in back of Tuesday's Reading Eagle sports section.

Scott Rolen, 3B
Played in Reading 1995-96
.349 BA, 57 RBIs

Now: The hardest part about remembering Scott Rolen as a prospect in Reading is knowing he reached his greatest heights as a Cardinal and not a Phillie.

Last season was his best, helping lead St. Louis back to the World Series for the first time since 1987. He posted career highs in every major offensive category: batting average (.314) on-base percentage (.409) slugging (.598) home runs (34) and RBIs (124).

Lights-out defense had always been his specialty, but 2004 was arguably his finest with the leather, posting a career-best .977 fielding percentage and committing just 10 errors in 1,228 innings of work.

After the season, he earned his sixth Gold Glove award and challenged Barry Bonds by earning votes for NL MVP.

Then: It all started with humble beginnings, and the future superstar sharpened his craft in Reading. It was here that team officials truly realized they had something special on their hands, reminiscent of another hot shot third baseman who blazed through town 25 years earlier.

Originally selected in the second round of the 1993 amateur draft, the 21-year-old earned respect for his hard work and keen baseball savvy, playing the game, as the old-timers would say, "as it ought to be played." He made an immediate impact in a late 1995 call-up, homering in his first at bat, and in the remaining 20 games, he hit .289 and helped lead Reading to the Eastern League Championship.

The following season, Rolen owned Baseballtown. He hit .361 in 61 games and led the league in batting average, slugging percentage (.591), on-base percentage (.445) and doubles (22) until the Phils brass had finally seen enough. He was promoted to Triple-A June 10, and debuted in Philadelphia Aug. 1.

Future: Considered the game’s premier defensive third baseman, the Hall of Fame awaits.

Phils-Nats series wrap

2005-04-28T09:17:00.000-04:00

The bats stay frozen, but the Phillies salvage enough runs to scratch out a 2-1 series win at RFK Stadium.

The big story yesterday were the brutal shadows cast over RFK Stadium, creating an impossible situation for hitters, and great conditions for pitchers. The Nationals have a number of 4:35 starts on their schedule. Good luck with that.

Luckily for the Phils, the shadows cleared just when they needed it in the bottom of the ninth. The lights flicked on instantly as Jimmy Rollins led off the inning with a home run to break the scoreless deadlock. Then, David Bell singled in Bobby Abreu, who displayed excellent base running to reach home just before the tag. Placido Polanco then singled in Jim Thome to put the Phils up for good 3-0.

Starting Pitching
Nobody, neither scouts nor statisticians, thought Esteban Loazia would ever have the kind of game he had yesterday again – eight innings, two runs, 11 strikeouts – reminiscent of his Cy Young runner-up season in 2003. Eight of the strikeouts caught Phils hitters looking, and at one point, he retired 18-straight.

As for his opponent, Brett Myers, nobody thought he’d have the kind of season he’s having either. After five starts, his ERA is 1.35, with 34 strikeouts to just nine walks. The former first-round pick is starting to live up to the high expectation, and for the first time in his career, the Phils have a great shot to win any time he takes the mound.

Relief pitching perfect!
It hasn't happened much this season, but the relief pitchers were perfect. Rheal Cormier pitched a perfect eighth, and Billy Wagner pitched a perfect ninth for the save.

Finding a spark ... in Scranton
I’m surprised and happy most fans have held off clamoring for Ryan Howard this season, but I’ll admit I got my first big itch yesterday, and I'm not sure it's going away.

With men on first and second, Charlie Manuel brought in pinch hitter Jose Offerman to hit for Myers in the eighth. Just a single would put the Phils on top, and a home run would put the Nationals away for good.

So far this season, Offerman is hitting .176 and has no RBIs. He struck out looking to end the inning.

It’s time to at least consider the idea of bringing up Howard. The team's biggest problem is their lack of power, bad news for a team built around the home run. They're near the bottom of the league in home runs and isolated power. Howard can deliever all of the above. Plus, he’s good PR and gives fans a new reason to tune in.

Here's what he's doing in Triple-A:

.365 BA, .475 OBP, .683 SLG, 4 HR

I don't think a lineup shuffle is dramatic enough to get the bats clicking. They need power, and more often than not, when prospects get called up they perform on pure nitro. Even if Howard doesn’t get regular chances, it’s worth lighting a fire under Thome. Big Jim hit well this spring with Howard on the roster.

Thome is this team's first baseman. No question there. But maybe it's time to make Howard their pinch hitter, give Thome an occasional break and hand Offerman his walking papers.

Adding Howard will rejuvenate the offense, along with waning fan interest.

The first interleague away game is May 20 in Baltimore, but I ask you, should the Phils add Howard even earlier?

Ex-Phils report: Johnny Estrada

2005-04-27T09:02:00.000-04:00

Can former Phillie Johnny Estrada build on his breakout season from a year ago, or was he just a one-hit wonder?

Just about everyone thought the Phillies were getting the better end of the deal when catcher Johnny Estrada was traded to Atlanta for starting pitcher Kevin Millwood.

However, Millwood never settled in as a No. 1 starter and is now with Cleveland, and Estrada is coming off a breakout year behind the plate, helping lead the divison rivals to their 13th consecutive division title. With Mike Lieberthal’s offensive struggles last year, and with no immediate answer in the farm system, the deal has become especially bitter with fans.

Brad Dowdy, writer from the popular Braves blog No Pepper, stopped in to answer a few questions about the young catcher.

BPF: I may not be right on many of my preseason predictions, but picking Johnny Estrada as a one-season wonder is one that's looking like it might come true. He's hitting .233 and hasn't homered this season. Do you think Estrada can rebound from his slow start and have the kind of season he had last year?

Brad Dowdy: I think his swing is solid enough that he will get on the right track soon. I'm not sure that he will approach last season’s numbers, but last year was such a shock I don't think it is out of the question. I think somewhere around .285 with 8 homers and 30 doubles is a reasonable expectation.

BPF: Giving up young catching is a risk, especially for the Phillies who have the oldest catching tandem in baseball. Do you feel the Braves got the better deal in the Millwood trade, and what were your thoughts when it first happened?

Brad Dowdy: In retrospect, I do think the Braves got the better end of the deal, but, anyone who says that they thought the Braves did well from a personnel standpoint at the time of the trade is lying. I, like many Braves fans, thought the deal was pure craziness, born out of implied financial restraints. I'm not sure if the Braves scouting department and Jon Schuerholz get the credit for Estrada's breakout, or rather Estrada just came into his own in his age 27/28 seasons, but the deal sure looks good from our end right about now.

BPF: How do you see Estrada's career playing out in Atlanta? Does the organization view him as a long-term backstop?

Brad Dowdy: Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Estrada should have the starting job in Atlanta for the remainder of this season and probably all of 2006. I expect that top catching prospect Brian McCann will be up at some point during the 2006 season in a backup role, and then take over the full-time job in 2007. McCann's bat is way too explosive to keep him behind Estrada for very long, but we are fortunate to have two cheap and productive options behind the plate for the foreseeable future.

Brad Dowdy writes for No Pepper, covering the Atlanta Braves and their farm system. Write to him at nopepper@cox.net.

Bosox target May 8 for Wade Miller's return

2005-04-26T19:30:00.000-04:00

For all you Topton-ites anxiously awaiting the return of Wade Miller, the Topton native could be back in action in a matter of days.

The Associated Press reported that Miller, scheduled to make his next rehabilitation start Thursday night at Pawtucket against Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, is targeted for a May 8 return to the Boston Red Sox. A roster spot should be waiting for him as pitcher David Wells sprained his right foot Monday night and is expected to miss at least a month. Miller has been recovering from a frayed rotator cuff in his pitching arm and hasn't pitched in the majors since last season.

Meanwhile, former Phillies manager Terry Francona said left-hander John Halama will take Wells' spot in the rotation and start next Tuesday at Detroit.

After Thursday, Miller's next rehabilitation start is scheduled for Tuesday and he could be ready to pitch against Seattle on May 8.

Grizzled reporters in HD

2005-04-26T14:41:00.000-04:00

If my Phillies blogging seems a little clearer today, it's because last evening, I hooked up a high-definition cable box to our 46-inch Hitachi HDTV.

The first channel I tested was Comcast SportsNet, and "Daily News Live" was airing. Man, it looks great, and the show happened to debut a new colorful set yesterday. As a matter of fact, of all the shows I tested out last night – "CSI: Miami," the Mets-Braves game on ESPN, "Yes Dear," and whatever was on PBS-HD, HD "Daily News Live" looked better than all of them.

The ironic part is, of all the stars across the dial I'd prefer to see behind some kind of soft camera filter, it would be the graying, pasty reporters on "Daily News Live." Instead, you can see every pore, stubble and wrinkle caused by decades Philadelphia sports reporting.

No need to adjust your monitor - Paul Domowitch is actually wearing that tie with that shirt.

Ex-Phil report: Wendell Magee

2005-04-26T12:42:00.000-04:00

Former Phillie Wendell Magee is back playing with the independent Atlantic League Long Island Ducks this season.

Magee, 33, had a great 2004 season for the Flock, knocking in 86 runs and hitting 13 home runs in 114 games during their run to the league championship. Other names from last year's championship team include OF Kimera Bartee, former R-Phil second baseman Rusty McNamara, former Phillie pitcher Matt Beech and current St. Louis reliever Bill Pulsipher.

Magee was a 12th round selection of the Phillies in the 1994 draft and spent parts of seven seasons playing in the majors.

Originally thought to be the Phillies center fielder of the future, it never quite panned out for him in Philadelphia. He never played more than 33 games a season and was traded in 2000 to the Detroit Tigers for the venerable Bobby Sismondo.

In his last full season in the majors, he hit .271 in 347 at bats for the free-swinging '02 Tigers.

Back with Long Island this season, he joins the likes of former big league pitchers John Rocker, Donovan Osborne, and the always popular third baseman, former R-Phil Pete Rose Jr.

Phils top Nats

2005-04-26T09:53:00.000-04:00

It wasn't perfect, but the Phils got exactly what they needed – a win – as they held off the Washington Nationals 5-4 Monday.

Yesterday's game calls for a bulleted recap in the tradition of baseball blog pioneer Aaron Gleeman.

* Cory Lidle is giving the Phils exactly what was expected from him this season – about five good innings each start. Like his previous outings, things became a little unraveled in the sixth, but so far, he hasn’t been badly burned. He gave up a lot of fly balls yesterday, posting a 4-11 ground ball to fly ball ratio. Word from Chris Wheeler is RFK is playing extremely deep in cold weather, so it’s possible Lidle was trying out different stuff. His sinker seemed to be hanging a little.

* The struggling offense didn’t look killer, but took advantage of enough mistakes in the field and from starter Zach Day. A costly throwing mistake by Jose Vidro led to a run instead of an inning-ending double play. Two batters later, Lidle singled to right-center and David Bell scored. In the sixth, Cristian Guzman’s fielding error eventually led to a bases-loaded two-out, two-run single by Placido Polanco to put the Phils up for good.

* Speaking of Polanco, he started in left field yesterday in place of Pat Burrell, who’s day-to-day. Poly saw a lot of action out there and didn’t goof up, earning player of the game honors from the broadcast crew. The lineup decision reveals manager Charlie Manuel doesn’t view Jose Offerman as a viable option for outfield.

* And speaking of Manuel, he’s trying like heck to get Tim Worrell reestablished as a setup man. I agree Worrell needs a comfortable role in the pen, but bringing him in right smack in the middle of the left-handed heart of the order – Vidro, Jose Guillen – was a little foolish and nearly cost them the lead. Vidro immediately tripled to lead off the inning, and Guillen brought him home with a deep sac fly to pull the score to 5-4. Termell Sledge then singled to center, and Vinny Castilla flied out to deep right. Billy Wagner was called in to finish the inning, allowing another deep fly ball from Gary Bennett. If the game was at CBP, that inning would have cost them.

* Wagner earned a rocky save in the ninth. His stuff was in the 95 mph range.

* Michael Berquist points out today on A Citizen’s Blog that David Bell is leading all NL third basemen in zone rating. This represents one of my favorite stats of the year because it breaks a lot of conventional wisdom about Bell’s defense, plus it make me happy since I’ve found myself in Bell’s corner this season. He's made some Gold Glove plays at the hot corner, including great work in the St. Louis series and a clutch grab and throw on a tweener in the first Hampton game.

Errors stick with fans – he’s had three of them – plus they see the batting average, the low power, the bad back and think he needs to sit on the bench. Starting pitchers, especially the ground ballers like Jon Lieber, can pitch with much more confidence knowing Bell is behind them. Aside from the occasional game off, Bell is the Phils best option for third base.

Phils-Braves series wrap

2005-04-25T11:06:00.000-04:00

No killer instinct: After Mike Hampton and Tim Hudson silenced Phillies hitters Friday and Saturday, the left-handed thumpers couldn’t generate a run against RHP John Thomson, as the Braves complete their series sweep Sunday. (AP Photo)

Really painful
Hardly the big weekend attraction, the Phillies were even tougher to watch than the first round of the NFL Draft, the second-longest in NFL history.

The first two games of this series saw Mike Hampton do what he always does against the Phils, not allow hits to left-handed hitters and achieve total command. Tim Hudson followed it up with a solid outing but the game was no contest as the Braves jumped on Randy Wolf for five runs in the first and lit up Gavin Floyd in relief.

Even with Vicente Padilla on the hill, Sunday represented a favorable situation for the Phils to salvage a win. The Braves were in position to sit back up 2-0 in the series, allow Padilla make his mistakes, and glide through nine innings.

For the Phillies, the worst was over, having endured Hampton and Hudson, and with Thomson taking the hill - a guy many in the lineup have had success against and representing a significant drop in talent from the previous two - a certain burden should have been lifted from their shoulders.

Instead, they did nothing, and at no point did one get a sense the Phils had any shot at winning. Thomson didn’t have great stuff, racked up a high pitch count early, yet the offense never capitalized. The left-handed thumpers were especially listless, including three stikeouts from Jim Thome.

In each game this series, the Phillies got behind early and never fought back. There was no spark, no drive, nothing at all. The root cause is a sudden lack of power from a team built for the long ball, now tied for 24th in baseball with 15. This team isn't creative enough in its run production, so when they get down early and the big bats go cold, they're D-O-N-E done.

Three heads are better than two
As long as Atlanta and Florida stay healthy and continue getting quality starts from their top three guys – Smoltz, Hampton and Hudson, and Beckett, Burnett and Willis for the Fish – it’s going to make life extremely difficult for the Phils and the rest of the division to keep pace. Remember, history has shown that one team - Atlanta - will turn on the afterburners at the break.

Many thanks
Getting positive feedback on BPF is always a treat. Many thanks go out to Brian Peoples at the Philling Station for his awesome endorsement of the work I do here. He sent many new readers my way Sunday, typically a day BPF doesn't see much action. Here's what he had to say:

If you're looking for cutting edge baseball analysis, you're unlikely to find it from the mainstream press. Berks Phillies Fans runs circles around most outlets that cover the Phils, and is well worth a spot in your rolodex of favorites. J. Michael Weitzel has really stepped it up recently, so make it a daily read.

Brian's blog is an excellent Phils resource. Every headline, tidbit, rumor and quote that has people talking is reported and discussed. Keep up the great work, Brian!

Outmatched or outmatching selves?

2005-04-24T10:13:00.000-04:00

Offensive struggles or good pitching? After a hot-hitting first week of the season, the Phillies bats have gone cold and opposing pitching, lead by Mike Hampton, has been red hot.

So far this series, Atlanta pitching has stifled the Phillies, including an ugly 11-1 loss to Tim Hudson yesterday. The slumping offense hasn’t scored more than six runs since April 10 against St. Louis, and are averaging a measly three runs a game over the last two weeks.

To their defense, they've faced some tough pitching along the way, including Dontrelle Willis and A.J. Burnett of Florida, and the trio of John Smoltz, Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton of Atlanta.

NL rankings based on ERA
3. Hudson: 0.96 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .216 BAA
5. Hampton: 1.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .224 BAA
8. Willis: 1.50 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, .194 BAA
13. Burnett: 2.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .219 BAA
34. Smoltz: 4.30 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .270 BAA

NL rankings based on *VORP
1. Hampton: 14.9
3. Willis: 11.8
4. Hudson: 11.5
12. Burnett: 8.5
49. Smoltz: 2.2

So far this series, Hampton solidified his reputation for being tough on Phillies left-handed hitters, not allowing a hit in his two starts and nearly going the distance in both games. However, the right-handed platoon of Jason Michaels and Placido Polanco, along with David Bell, have been very successful.

2005 OPS vs. Hampton
Bell: 1.429
Michaels: 1.171
Polanco: 1.143

Yesterday, the Braves handed the ball to Tim Hudson, who held the Phillies to one run and five hits in six innings. The big problem was their inability to deliver with men in scoring position, going 1-8.

Surprisingly, the team still leads the league in runs with men in scoring position and two outs with 35. The problem is, they’ve only scored 10 runs in that situation since the St. Louis series, with Burrell accounting for the lion’s share of the 35 the first week of the season.

Floyd experiment blown up
Gavin Floyd's second meltdown out of the bullpen resulted in a demotion to Triple-A, something that should have happened when Vicente Padilla came off the DL. His ghastly lack of control, walking four in two-thirds of an inning yesterday, indicate a pitcher that's lost his head.

An unpopular move among writers in the Phlogosphere, Floyd's insertion into the bullpen turned into a disaster for the deliberate youngster, who scouts have pegged as a pure starter. The promising rookie slumps back to Scranton with the second-lowest pitching VORP in all of baseball, an embarrassing -8.8.

Hopefully, he can get back on track with regular work in a rotation. With doubts about Padilla’s arm, Floyd’s return appears likely at some point this season.

No relief
Floyd’s replacement is reliever Geoff Geary, who did not have a good spring. Geary pitched eight innings, allowing 13 hits and six walks in Clearwater. Geary is among the worst pitchers I’ve ever seen in a Phillies uniform.

In any event, hold on to your hats Phans. Things are getting a little hairy in that bullpen.

*VORP: Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

Pratt's home run lifts Phils

2005-04-22T11:31:00.000-04:00

I wanted to post a picture of Todd Pratt parking one from yesterday’s win against the Rox, but nothing moved over the wire. My guess is when Pratt bats, the photographers take a bathroom break.

Pratt is the Phillies best soldier. He’s always a free agent after the season and always resigns. He could easily go elsewhere, and if certain chips fell his way, he could possibly become a starter for some other team. Instead, Pratt sticks around and accepts his role as a backup, earning under $1 million this season.

Today’s headlines read things like "Thome's first HR sparks win," but it was Pratt's two-run shot that put the Phils up for good. You may need to go a few paragraphs down to read about it.

In fact, the only time he's gained headlines this season was in spring training, when he walked out on an interview with Comcast’s Leslie Gudel when she asked if he thought he would have to fight for his backup spot with A.J. Hinch.

In 12 at bats, he's done what had taken Jim Thome 56 at bats to do – hit a home run. And in the three games Pratt has started, they’re 3-0, including Gavin Floyd’s seven-inning win, Lieber’s eight-inning 2-1 win against Atlanta, and yesterday’s game.

Links: Swing and a Miss "Patterns," Balls Sticks & Stuff "Lieber Gaining Attention"

Phils must wise up against lowly Rox

2005-04-21T13:55:00.000-04:00

The strategy should be simple – make Colorado pitching throw strikes.

Colorado Rockies pitching has surrendered a league-high 79 walks this season. Their bullpen is by far the worst in baseball, featuring such stiffs as Byung-Hyun Kim, Jose Acevedo and a motley crew to man the hull in their heroic quest for 50 wins.

It can’t be said any clearer than this: the Phillies must beat teams like the Rockies at home. Last night represented Colorado’s first road win since Sept. 29 of last season.

It’s unclear, even to the broadcast crew, whether Charlie Manuel is giving his hitters the go ahead, but it seems the green light is shining brightly these days. Ideally, you want your batters to hit the ball into play, but in the last couple nights, opposing pitchers haven’t been throwing strikes, and in a number of situations, looking for the walk would have been smartest approach to keep rallies alive. The Phils drew seven of them last night, and could have drawn seven more against Kim, Brian Fuentes and Acevedo alone.

Right now, Jim Thome is pressing to hit his first home run, and his impatience is starting to hurt the club. Here’s last night’s inning 7, with the score 6-1 Rox.

- J. Acevedo relieved J. Wright - C. Sullivan in right field
– M. Lieberthal homered to deep left
– J. Offerman hit for R. Madson
– J. Offerman doubled to center
- J. Rollins grounded out to second, J. Offerman to third
– K. Lofton singled to center, J. Offerman scored
- B. Fuentes relieved J. Acevedo
- B. Abreu hit by pitch, K. Lofton to second
- J. Thome flied out to right
- P. Burrell walked, K. Lofton to third, B. Abreu to second
- P. Polanco hit for C. Utley - P. Polanco popped out to right

If you didn’t watch the game, the Rockies bullpen was as bad as advertised, featuring a number of wild throws and pitches that flew behind hitters. Poly haters can use this opportunity to jump all over him for ending the inning with a pop fly, but I’m going to jump on Thome, our $13 million veteran. Abreu was beamed when the count was full. Why, then, is Thome swinging on the very next pitch?

Here’s my question: Does Manuel pull Big Jim aside to have a little talk, even though it might create for an awkward situation on the dingy when the two go fishing? After all, comfort, and letting players play their game, is the key, right?

For this veteran offense, it’s time to play consistent baseball instead of stringing together peaks and valleys.

Utley-Polanco poll

2005-04-20T14:07:00.000-04:00

Do you agree with Phillies manager Charlie Manuel's decision to platoon Chase Utley and Placido Polanco at second base?

Vote for your selection in the poll located on the right. Use the comment thread below to explain your choice.

Phils-Mets series recap

2005-04-20T09:36:00.000-04:00

The 2005 season premiere of Vicente Padilla, and the bullpen debut of Gavin Floyd, unraveled into a complete debacle as the Mets split their road series with the Phils 1-1.

Spliting two at home to the Mets may not seem like the end of the world, but it’s a loss anyway you shake it, and a situation the Phils must exploit in order to gain ground in the NL East rat race. The Phils may not face worse pitching within the division than the two stiffs they saw in this series: Kaz Ishii and Victor Zambrano.

Vicente Padilla, giving up five homers and eight runs in his three inning dud of a debut, pitched like a guy that missed most of the spring. In addition to working through arm problems, he’ll need to adjust his game and get his changeup working since he can no longer deliver his fastball with the same velocity. He could learn something from Jon Lieber on how to get batters out without a blazing fastball.

Righting the Padilla Flotilla could take lots of time, coaching and mentoring. Vicente is a concern, and at this point, somewhat of a resurrection project as his calling card was his dancing heater.

In his relief, Gavin Floyd wasn’t any better, giving up a solo homer to Jose Reyes and a grand slam to David Wright, making it seven Met home runs for the game, setting a new club record.

Floyd was so rattled in his three painful innings of work, he even surrendered a triple to the pitcher Zambrano. His final line was very close to Padilla’s: eight runs, eight of them earned, three walks, God have mercy.

Saving Gavin Floyd
If Floyd’s performance resembled a rookie who was pitching on short rest, coming off a game he got shelled, and working from the bullpen probably for the first time since t-ball, that’s because it was.

The question now is how to get Floyd back on track, because they’ve got kind of a potential mess on their hands and are in danger of spoiling a good thing. His biggest visible problem last night was location, but his face told the story: He looked like a ghost - scared and lost.

Maybe time is the answer, but the more they work on Floyd the reliever the less time he spends as Floyd the starter. His confidence entering last night was probably shaken, and now, it has to be shot.

There won’t be many more blowout games where Floyd can get low pressure work from the pen, so what do they do? What happens if he gets bombed again?

The best thing that could happen if Floyd stays up is if Padilla says “Put me back on the DL. I’m not ready.” Then, move Floyd back to starter and let Todd Pratt catch him on the road. The next road game is in six days, Monday at Washington.

Gavin Floyd poll results
Fourty percent of BPF readers taking part in a recent poll said the Phillies would have been best served by keeping rookie pitcher Gavin Floyd in the starting rotation and moving an existing starter to the bullpen when Vicente Padilla returned from the DL.

Thirty readers took part in the poll that ended before Tuesday night’s pitching meltdown against the Mets.

The Phillies final decision, as it played out in grizzly detail, was to move Floyd to the bullpen, the option that received the second-lowest amount of votes (4) on our poll.

Here are the complete results:
-40% Keep him in the starting rotation and move an existing starter to the bullpen, send someone to Triple-A
-23% Keep him in the rotation and trade an existing starter
-17% Send him to Triple-A
-13% Move him to the bullpen, send someone to Triple-A
-7% Keep him in the rotation to pitch in a six man rotation, send someone to Triple-A:

Two weeks notice

2005-04-19T15:31:00.000-04:00

October is still a long way off, but the list of players off to fast starts, including Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts, is surprising as the season passes two weeks of play. Here's a quick look at who's hot, based on offensive VORP.

Here’s what VORP means: Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute with the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider defense.

Orioles second baseman and former platoon player Brian Roberts leads all of baseball with a 17.7 VORP, while the Phillies Pat Burrell ranks eighth in baseball with a 10.9 VORP, the highest of any NL outfielder.

Elsewhere, other surprising names of players leading their league are Shea Hillenbrand (AL 3B), Dimitri Young (AL DH) and Edgardo Alfonso (NL 3B).

The top ten is thus:

1. Brian Roberts (BAL) 17.6
2. Dmitri Young (DET) 11.8
3. Edgardo Alfonzo (SFN) 11.8
4. Jeff Kent (LAD) 11.7
5. Chipper Jones (ATL) 11.2
6. Miguel Tejada (BAL) 11.1
7. Shea Hillenbrand (TOR) 11.0
8. Pat Burrell (PHI) 10.9
9. Clint Barmes (COL) 10.5
10. Joe Randa (CIN) 10.5

In addition, a couple of understated offseason NL acquisitions have been nice surprises, including Vinny Castilla, Washington, and Jose Valentin, Los Angeles Dodgers. They’re among the NL top 5 in EqA.

One player that’s not having a good season so far is Phillies third baseman David Bell. His –2.7 VORP is third-worst among National League third basemen, ahead of the surprisingly bad Mike Lowell, Florida, and Ty Wigginton, Pittsburgh.

Jim Thome is in the bottom five among NL first basemen with a –0.1 VORP. Thome has yet to hit a home run, so one can expect that number to improve.

Among NL second basemen, Chase Utley ranks 11th with a 1.5 VORP, and Placido Polanco ranks 25th with a –0.8.

The big surprises for the Phillies are center fielders Kenny Lofton and Jason Michaels, ranked 5th and 6th best NL center fielders respectively, with VORPs of 5.4 and 4.8.

The CF platoon is definitely working, as neither one of them holds a significant defensive edge.

Miller hits 93 mph in pain-free start

2005-04-19T10:40:00.000-04:00

Berks County native Wade Miller worked his second pain-free rehab start Monday night for the Wilmington Blue Rocks. The Reading Eagle’s Phil Gianficaro was in Wilmington to report on the Red Sox pitcher and had the story in today’s edition.

Miller worked five innings, allowed one run on a leadoff homer, striking out six and walking none in leading the Blue Rocks to a 4-2 victory over the Kinston Indians.

The best news was that he felt no pain in his shoulder and hit 93 on the gun.

Ex-Phil report: Bruce Chen

2005-04-18T20:44:00.000-04:00

It’s taken 28-year-old Bruce Chen eight major-league backdrops to settle into a comfortable groove. Now with Baltimore, the former Phillie is starting to live up to his former prospect status. Scott Christ from the popular Orioles blog Camden Chat stops in to answer a few questions.

Phillies fans may remember Bruce Chen as the guy traded by the Atlanta Braves to the Phillies for Andy Ashby in 2000. After 31 uneventful starts between 00-01, he was sent along with prospect Adam Walker to the New York Mets for relief pitchers Dennis Cook and Turk Wendell . He’d go on to pitch for Montreal, Cincinnati, Houston and Boston before the Orioles' took a chance on the left-hander last summer. He pitched well during the stretch run, and so far this season, he’s 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two starts.

I asked Scott Christ from the Orioles blog Camden Chat his thoughts on the resurgence of Bruce Chen.

BPF: Bruce Chen is only 28 and has been everywhere. Do you think he's sticking around this time?

SC: It's kind of difficult to think Chen is going to stick around anywhere at this point, but yeah, he's still young and I think he's found a good place for himself. This is not a team that doesn't have the time to give Chen a good look in the rotation. If Chen is going to stick anywhere, Baltimore seems like the place, for now at least.

BPF: He's 1-0 with an ERA of 1.80 in his first two outings. In his brief time with Baltimore last season, he pitched well. In eight appearances, seven as a starter, he posted a 3.02 ERA (3.18 EQERA) and a 2-1 strikeout to walk ratio. What's been the difference since coming to Baltimore? Those represent the best numbers of his career.

SC: Maybe just maturity, learning over the years from countless different coaches and managers and fellow pitchers, but I think you have to credit Ray Miller at this point. Miller helped turn around the entire staff when he returned as the pitching coach in 2004, and he's seemed to work very well with both Chen and fellow lefty Erik Bedard. They're not throwing the fastball so much, instead using their offspeed pitches confidently.

When Chen was pitching against the Yankees a few days ago, Bedard sat in the dugout by Ray Miller with the ball held in his changeup grip. Chen was an artist in that start, baffling the Yankees and working both corners.

BPF: How do you see Chen finishing this year, and on a bigger scale, the rest of Baltimore's starting rotation?

SC: Chen has been Baltimore's best starter since the stretch run performance last year that you mentioned, which is all of ten games of course, but it's something to think about. He's still such a mystery in many ways, but I like him a lot and think this could be his year. I don't think he's ever going to really be an ace or a real frontline starter, but I think Chen could be a cog in the Baltimore rotation for a while.

This might be super optimistic, but I think Chen is going to win 12-15 games this year with an ERA around 3.70 or so; I expect a good, solid year.

As for the entire Baltimore staff, I like Chen, Bedard and Lopez, but Cabrera worries me greatly and Ponson is something of a train wreck, which basically means the two guys with the best stuff are the ones that give us grief. They should be better than last year,and I think overall they can put up numbers in line with their post-Ray Miller performance of 2004, maybe a little better.

Everyone talks about the offense, but I think Orioles fans are focusing more than anything else on the pitching. We know that's where it all starts and ends over 162 games.

Scott Christ writes for the popular Orioles blog Camden Chat and can be reached at sc@camdenchat.com.

Phils-Braves series wrap

2005-04-18T12:25:00.000-04:00

A young pitcher elevates his game to the next level, and a controversial figure becomes a hero, as the Phillies face down the tough starting pitching of Atlanta and win the series 2-1. (AP Photo)

Lesson learned
Last night, the Phillies sent a message to fans: boo this.

As the teams in the NL East play chess, fans must learn to appreciate a win any way they can take it. With Washington, picked last but currently in first, and the four remaining contenders all knotted up at 6-6, if winning means bunting, pinch-running and platooning to exploit every inch of weakness, so be it.

The gut instinct of Charlie Manuel
A dozen games into the season and the strategy of new manager Charlie Manuel appears to be the one he’s said all along: decisions based on intuition.

As a fanatic trying to gage whether or not this will work, I toyed with the idea of keeping a log of critical moves, but decided it would be far too tedious. Situations like when pitchers get pulled, how relievers are used and when, who starts in the field, where hitters bat in the order, etc, would be tracked and the results recorded.

If such a scorecard was kept, Manuel would be ahead right now, starting with the big issue casting a shadow over this team: the two-headed second basemen of Chase Utley and Placido Polanco.

I’m with the majority in my impatience to see Ultey break free, but Manuel has other designs, and more patience than the rest of us. His decision to start the right-handed Polanco last night against LHP Mike Hampton led to a 2-5 night, including the game-winning hit and a run-saving throw. It also allowed Chase Utley to come into a pinch hit situation later in the game against the right-handed closer Danny Kolb.

Remember those charts grade school teachers used to keep for times you did something good in class? If you did a task OK, you got a check. But if you did the extra credit, you got a star.

Last night in the tenth, Manuel earned his first gold star.

After a shaky ninth, struggling Braves closer Danny Kolb committed the sin of walking David Bell and Mike Lieberthal to start the tenth. Kenny Lofton dropped a bunt in front of the mound, which Kolb fielded cleanly. Kolb had ample time to throw out pinch-runner Tomas Perez at third, but sailed it high and into left field, scoring Perez to tie it up 1-1.

With Kolb now having the confidence of – say – a wet, trembling fetus, the next batter, Jimmy Rollins, dropped another bunt up in Kolb’s grill that died right in front of him. Then Polanco delivered the dagger off Braves righthander Kevin Gryboski to score Lieberthal and win it.

What I liked so much, aside from Rollins great execution of the bunt, was Manuel’s mercilessness in forcing Kolb to make a play. He turned Atlanta’s closer into a whimpering little girl.

What great instinct. What an ending. Manuel beats Cox. Who woulda thunk it?

Brett Myers
There’s no doubt Brett Myers is pitching at an extremely high level, and surprised everyone last night by how well he pitched in prime-time. How's he doing it?

In Todd Zolecki's recap, he said "Two words consistently pop up as coaches and teammates describe the difference in Phillies pitcher Brett Myers this season: comfort and composure."

I can't report on his psyche, but I’ll add two more to the list: cutter and curve.

When used in combination, he's freezing just about everyone. The cutter, in particular, is making hitters swing late. Instead of trying to blow smoke like Curt Schilling, he’s crafting pitches to get outs, like Jon Lieber.

Speaking of Lieber, when is it time to start saying things like "The Phillies one-two punch of Jon Lieber and Brett Myers."

Get your popcorn ready
Myers vs. Hampton round 2 is scheduled for Friday.

Utley saves it as Lieber improves to 3-0

2005-04-17T09:04:00.000-04:00

Jon Lieber won a masterful pitchers duel with John Smoltz, but got big help from second baseman Chase Utley as the Phillies beat the Braves 2-1 yesterday.

Utley drove in the go-ahead run with a two out single in the sixth inning off Smoltz (0-3), but more importantly, snared a line drive in the ninth with men on third and second to preserve the win for Lieber (3-0) and a shaky save for Billy Wagner, his second.

Lieber was thrifty with his pitches, throwing just 75 over eight innings. He threw three, one-two-three innings, including the eighth.

Then Manuel handed the ball to Wagner to close it out, and it became an adventure. He gave up a lead-off single to Chipper Jones, then got Andruw Jones and Johnny Estrada to fly out on very deep, pulse-pounding fly balls. Ageless wonder Julio Franco got a pinch single, and a wild pitch moved Jones and Franco to third and second. Brian Jordan’s line drive was snagged by Utley to end the game.

Jimmy Rollins got the Phillies on the board in the sixth with a leadoff home run, his first of the season.

Ace Jon Lieber
Just a fantastic game featuring two great pitchers I love to watch. Lieber is fast becoming a favorite – what a professional. Not only has he been efficient in every start, he’s gotten better and gone deeper in each outing. When Wagner got into trouble, he calmly sat there, gave a little clap of encouragement, and when the game finally ended, there was no big celebration, only a small smile to acknowledge that the job was complete.

Head to head, he’s now beaten Livan Hernandez, Chris Carpenter and John Smoltz, opening-day pitchers for each of their respective clubs.

If it wasn’t clear before, it should be clear now: the Phillies can win any game Lieber pitches.

Free Tank?
Just about everyone, including myself, is signing a petition to free Chase Utley. But what about Todd Pratt?

Pratt has been behind the plate for two games this year, both wins that featured perhaps the best pitching performances of the season: Gavin Floyd’s first game, and Lieber’s game yesterday.

I didn’t get to see Friday’s game, but why didn’t Pratt catch Floyd? They seemed to have great chemistry in Floyd’s first game, and the broadcasters seemed to like the idea of making Pratt his personal catcher.

It’s also worth mentioning Pratt’s great game throwing out baserunners yesterday, including Rafael Furcal. His throws were dead on.

Billy Wagner looks hittable
Maybe when the weather warms up a bit it will be easier for Wagner to unload, but 96-mph fastballs over the middle of the plate aren’t going to intimidate the right-handers at the heart of the Braves order.

David Bell needs a day off
Charlie Manuel needs to give third baseman David Bell a day or two off. Bell went 0-3 yesterday, including two soft grounders, lowering his season totals to a meager .163 BA, .234 OBP, .186 SLG.

Manuel has started Bell in every game this season, and it’s time to give Tomas Perez or Placido Polanco a day over there.

Totally awesome site maintenance
You’ll notice a link to all the Phillies stats at the top of BPF. This is for my benefit and yours as you make comments and want to doublecheck the numbers.

In newspapers, they say it’s best to get the important stuff above the fold, and already, I’ve used those links about a dozen times just to write this post.

I chose Yahoo Sports for several reasons: It’s quick, has the important stats and schedules all in one spot, features the friendliest design, and never gives me technical problems the way ESPN or CNNSI do. Plus, it has a built-in headline feed for recent articles the player appeared. I’m a big fan of Yahoo Sports.

Phils-Marlins series wrap

2005-04-15T13:44:00.000-04:00

I'd say "better late than never" for this Phillies-Marlins series recap, but in reality, there's never a good time to relive a Phils series when it's played at half-empty, joyless Dolphins Stadium. (AP Photo)

Up here in Dutch Country, Florida is paradise. Ask someone their number one vacation destination, and nine out of ten will flatly say "Florida." But when it comes to Phillies baseball, vacations in Miami are about as fun as vacations in Womelsdorf, Pa.

Like us pasty Dutchies with our fanny packs and sunscreen, the Phils go to Florida feeling good, but come home badly burned.

Following a good series against the Cardinals, the Phils managed to win the first game of this series by putting up enough runs against Al Leiter to make the job easier for Brett Myers to win his first game of the season, and for the bullpen to finally piece together some semblance of relief.

Then, the Phils bats went cold, or rather, Marlins pitching got hot again Tuesday night as A.J. Burnett went the distance, and Dontrelle Willis followed it up with a complete-game shutout Wednesday, his second consecutive shutout to start the season.

It's not far fetched to believe A.J. Burnett (1-1, 2.40 ERA) isn't capable of going nine innings at this early stage in the season, but it's unbelievable he didn't walk anybody. Tommy John seems to have disappeared from his rear view, and as I projected earlier, the hard-throwing Burnett projects as a 15-game winner.

Willis had the Phils guessing all day. They hit well against lefties Leiter and Mark Mulder, but Mulder (0-1, 8.18 ERA, 2.18 WHIP) is off to a rocky start altogether. Willis (2-0, 0.00 ERA) throws junk, has a goofy delivery and the Phils don’t respond well to that.

However, folks that are ready to hand this guy the Cy Young should take caution. Fast starts are nothing new to D-Train. Last April, he went 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA and couldn’t sustain it, finishing 10-11 with a 4.02 ERA and an RAA of 0 for the season. His rookie season saw an identical drop as the months wore on.

Willis is a good pitcher, still very young, but not a great one over his short career. It will be interesting to see if Florida pitching can maintain their hot start. Already, their No. 5 guy, Ismael Valdez, is on the shelf, and Josh Beckett has a track record of blister problems.

Though they’re tied with the Braves and Nationals, all 5-4, Florida looks to be the best team out of the gate benefiting from the best pitching in baseball.

First slump of the season
David Bell plays the game harder than any other Phillie because the game moves at a faster speed for him.

Bell, in his father’s book “The Mental Game of Baseball,” makes that admission crystal clear as he explains just how hard it is for him to keep pace in baseball.

His bat will never win him fans in Philly, so it’s a shame to see him stumble defensively as he did against the Marlins, especially following an understated series with the glove in St. Louis.

Bell is hitting .192 with a .278 OBP and .242 SLG, with only one extra-base hit and no home runs.

If anyone needs to homer in his first at bat this afternoon against Atlanta to keep the home fans at bay, it’s Bell.

Danny Sandoval is fit as a fiddle
A few months ago, I wrote an article about Scranton second baseman Danny Sandoval, who at the time, was a player I never saw.

Using a photo in Baseball America as a springboard, I went on to say media guide information and real life don't often match up. In the photo, Sandoval looked a little doughy, which contradicted my initial thought of what he might look like.

About a week later, I caught my first glimpse at Sandoval. He was built like Placido Polanco - fit and trim.

The point of the article was tell readers not to trust media guide information, which is still horribly wrong usually. But the other lesson I've learned post-post is not to trust pictures, either, or to even trust sites like this one.

Maybe it's about time to take down that post, especially since it comes up in a Google search for "Danny Sandoval." I got this comment about a minute ago:

"I know Danny Sandoval (personally) from his time in Birmingham---- trust me, he is no "dough-boy."

Hopefully now, a Google search will bring up this article, which says Danny Sandoval is fit as a fiddle, and Jason Weitzel is a total beefcake.

Wade Miller working toward May return

2005-04-14T15:03:00.000-04:00

Berks County native Wade Miller went 4 2/3 innings and allowed two earned runs on four hits, a walk, and four strikeouts for Class A Greenville yesterday in his first rehab start. He threw 73 pitches and according to Boston manager Terry Francona, got his velocity above 90 mph.

"His outing was far more good than bad," Francona told the Boston Globe. "He had a real good breaking ball. He was living around 88-89, which isn't where he will be but it was pretty good."

Miller, recovering from a frayed rotator cuff, is expected to make his next rehab start on Monday, though for which minor league team has yet to be determined. He's expected to make another two or three rehab starts then return to the Red Sox sometime in May.

Barons bats blistering

2005-04-14T14:32:00.000-04:00

Scranton/W-B won their sixth straight game last night and third in a row versus Richmond in a 5-4 victory over the Braves.

The Red Barons are off to a fast start (6-1) and fielding one of the better Scranton/W-B teams in recent memory, especially with the bats. Here’s the linuep Scranton featured last night and their batting averages:

Budzinski CF .455
Hannahan 2B .450
Rushford RF .125
Howard 1B .500
Coste 3B .400
Castellano LF .273
Ruiz C .300
Sandoval SS .214

SWB boasts four players in the International League’s top 15 in slugging: Mark Budzinski (.864), Ryan Howard (.700), Chris Coste (.680) and Buzz Hannahan (.650).

This series features two of the best power-hitting prospects in baseball: Howard and Andy Marte.

Howard is hitting .500 and slugging .700 in seven games, but hasn’t homered yet this season.

Marte, a third baseman, is doing even better, batting .429 and slugging .893 with four homers. Marte looks to be the successor of Chipper Jones at third base, or can be called upon to take over the spot in left field. Last night he went 2-5 with a homer, but missed a chance to deliver with the bases loaded. For more on Marte and the rest of Atlanta's farm system, check out No Pepper.

Good old-fashioned bullpen remedy

2005-04-13T12:37:00.000-04:00

In defense of traditional bullpen roles, the BPF argues there's no pill to fix an aching bullpen, but good-old fashioned routine doesn't hurt.

I didn't get to see the game last night because I was constructing my brother-in-law's resume. If anyone needs the services of an RII-certified airline mechanic trained in jet propulsion, I have your guy.

Around 8:45, I flipped to the Phils games for a minute and saw Miguel Cabrera's home run off Terry Adams. Later, I saw a bit of Sporting News' Ken Rosenthal on Comcast talking about how relief pitching is the hardest thing to get started early in the season, using the Phils pen and others as a springboard.

Bullpen, it seems, is on everyone's mind, and nobody has an answer for it.

I've considered which combination of pitchers will work best for the Phils, especially with Gavin Floyd in the mix, and haven’t come up with an answer I've totally liked.

But as far as I can tell, there are two things wrong with the Phils bullpen that should be addressed quickly: First, there's no routine, and second, there are a couple bad apples in there.

The only aspect that figures to be a sure thing when talking about bullpen is players say they perform better when they know what their roles are. The puzzle gets easier when you have some studs: Brad Lidge, Eric Gagne, guys like that. But in general, the pieces rarely fit perfectly, and will never be solved mathematically. No position on the field is based more on gut instinct than relief pitching.

In the limited chances you can exploit it, following routine seems to work. The closest that's happened for the Phils this season was Monday's game: Madson comes in to relieve Myers, Cormier relieves Madson in the eighth in a left-left situation, Worrell relieves Cormier in right-right situation, Wagner closes the ninth, and no runs crossed the plate. This is the formula the Phils would prefer to follow every game.

Around the league, routine seems to be keeping careers alive, like Jose Mesa in Pittsburgh, who's entered three games this season, all in the ninth inning, and earned his third save in as many chances yesterday.

In 70 games last season, he pitched 69.1 innings, earned 43 saves with a 3.25 ERA. That's a good line, but it's not the best on the team.

Mesa is notorious for getting pissed when he's brought in during non-save situations. Why? One, because he likes racking up saves, and second, because he knows he's out of his element. No expert predicted Mesa would still be an effective pitcher two years removed from Philadelphia, but in terms of doing the job the Pirates signed him to do, he's done it. Meanwhile, Mike Gonzalez, who's a better pitcher than Mesa, pitches the tougher spots in the seventh and eighth innings.

Though he's going to surrender some runs, Mesa doesn't hurt the team as much if he enters the game with a clean slate in the ninth. That's his spot; that's his routine.

With the Phils, there's no flow right now. The breakdown started with Tim Worrell and the effects have creeped downward. That's why Charlie Manuel will make every effort to reestablish Worrell for the eighth inning because he's a key player in the comfort zone.

The Phils are not alone. Around the league, bullpens have been battered early on, and one of the most common discussions around baseball is the relief ace, as coined by Bill James. Rosenthal spoke about it last night.

To me, relief ace makes sense, and it's working for Keith Foulke in Boston, but I'm skeptical whether something like that would work for the Phillies. The relief game is far too spontaneous in the National League where pitchers must hit. It's harder to map out a space for a relief ace, or follow a perfect coordinate, or discount things like match-ups or confidence.

On the flipside, the coordinates shouldn't be written in pen, either. When the Phillies lost Friday’s game to St. Louis, Wagner should have been brought in the eighth inning, two outs, with the bases loaded because his fastball and slider are the best weapons to get hitters out.

So what's to learn? Managing a bullpen is hard work? That's part of it. I don't think there’s a right or wrong way to do it, but routine tends to bring out the best in pitchers, as revealed by players themselves.

Back to the Phillies, there might be a few quick answers.

I'm sure there are better Triple-A or indie league players than Terry Adams, who, to be blunt, looks fat and out of shape to me, and Pedro Liriano is a Triple-A pitcher and should be sent down.

For now, the Phillies can only hope time irons out the wrinkles and allows their veteran pitchers to get settled into comfortable spots. I would also urge the Phillies to keep an open mind. Don’t get attached to guys like Adams and Liriano.

Their former employers didn't.

Gavin Floyd poll

2005-04-12T13:26:00.000-04:00

What should the Phillies do with Gavin Floyd when Vicente Padilla returns from the DL?

Vote for your selection in the poll located on the right. Use the comment thread below to explain your choice.

Rollins voted best SS in NL East

2005-04-12T11:55:00.000-04:00

Nearly 80 percent of voters said Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins would have the best season of any shortstop in the NL East.

A total of 29 voters took part in the poll posted here on BPF, with 23 votes for Rollins, three votes for Rafael Furcal of Atlanta, two votes for Jose Reyes of the New York Mets, one vote for Cristian Guzman of Washington, and no votes for Alex Gonzalez of Florida.

Last season, Rollins had the best season based on win shares.

Myers, bullpen, sink Marlins

2005-04-11T23:10:00.001-04:00

Brett Myers allowed an unearned run and struck out eight over 5 and 2/3 innings, and the bullpen shut the door the rest of the way, as the Phillies beat the Marlins 4-1 to open their series in Florida.

The game also featured a two-run upper-deck blast by Pat Burrell in the first inning off Al Leiter, as Burrell extended his league-leading RBI total to 17, and tied Troy Glaus for the league lead in home runs with four.

Bobby Abreu supplied a terrific fantasy baseball line and generated plenty of offense, getting two hits, scoring twice and stealing three bases, which tied a career high.

Myers (1-0) got better as the game wore on, working quickly through the third, fourth and fifth innings.

Then in the sixth with two outs, Myers hit Carlos Delgado with a pitch and walked Mike Lowell, and Charlie Manuel made the call to Ryan Madson who ended the threat by getting Paul Lo Duca to pop out.

Madson stayed in the game into the eighth inning when things got hairy, as he gave up a leadoff single to Juan Pierre and a single to Miguel Cabrera. Facing Delgado, Manuel made the call for lefty Rheal Cormier who got him to fly out. Tim Worrell came in to face the right-handed Lowell and got him to pop out on one pitch to end the inning.

Billy Wagner brushed off the dust to earn the save in the ninth, his first of the year.

Notes:
Placido Polanco started the game at second and went 0-5, stranding five men on base.

As a team, they left 11 men stranded, but three of their runs came with two outs: Burrell’s two-run home run, and an RBI single by Jimmy Rollins. The Phillies have now scored 31 runs with two outs this season, 11 more than the next best team, LAA.

Jason Michaels started in center field and went 0-1 with three walks.

As for Myers, his stuff - his cutter and sinker - had pop, especially in the middle innings, but one gets the sense he’s still not totally trusted to get out of jams. Though his pitch count was somewhere around 100, he needed just one more out to escape the inning with Paul Lo Duca at the plate, with men on first and second and holding on to a 3-1 lead. Manuel handed the ball to Madson, who got the out, but Myers was reluctant to leave.

In any event, the Phils get another good outing from a starting pitcher, and this time, the bullpen holds it.

The Phils are looking good at 4-3 and are riding a three-game winning streak on the road against two tough teams.

Phils-Cards series wrap

2005-04-11T13:35:00.000-04:00

Torrid offense and solid starting pitching from Jon Lieber, pictured, and rookie Gavin Floyd helped the Phillies reassert themselves in a 2-1 series defeat of the Cardinals. (AP Photo)

Offense
Before we get to Pat the Bat's bad-to-the-bone weekend, here's my favorite aspect of the season thus far: With men in scoring position and two outs, the Phillies have scored a league-best 25 runs. That's 10 runs better than No. 2 Cincinnati. Breaking it down, it's 14 hits, three homers, good for a .359 batting average and .615 slugging. In yesterday's blowout, I counted nine hits with two outs, driving in seven runs.

Lead by Burrell, the Phillies basically destroyed Cardinals pitching this series, and blew apart Chris Carpenter in three-plus innings yesterday, tagging the veteran for 10 hits, eight runs, and one monster blast from Burrell.

The Bat has 15 RBIs now, already an outstanding month's worth, and is closing in on a Phillies record for April – 22, set by Von Hayes in 1989 (Thanks for the correction, Bob). While the rest of the lineup has been excellent, Burrell has been a one-man wrecking crew and is easily the NL’s offensive player of the week. Bobby Abreu also reestablished himself this series, going 3-4 with 4 RBIs yesterday.

Aside from the first six innings against Esteban Loazia in the Nationals series, the Phils bats haven't gone hot or cold so much as been steadily good, and really came alive the last two games of this series. In each game, they've had the lead going into the 8th inning and would be 6-0 is it weren't for the bullpen.

Utley vs. Polanco
As for the hot-button issue on Chase Utley versus Placido Polanco, Utley played the last two games of the series and went 4-10 with a homer. One gets a feeling Utley will play until he hangs an 0-fer, then Polanco will play a game. That’s the way I expect it to go until one of them – probably Polanco – gets traded.

Utley in 15 AB: .333 BA, .313 OBP, .533 SLG, 1 HR
Polanco in 13 AB: .308 BA, .400 OBP, .308 SLG, 0 HR

If Kenny Lofton goes on the DL, Utley and Polanco both do nicely hitting second, and I'm not sure Lofton should be hitting second anyway.

David Bell
Lost in all of this, and overshadowed by the third baseman in the opposite dugout, Scott Rolen, David Bell played exceptional defense at third base this series, including two great snags in Friday's game. He has some kind of cannon, and is deadly accurate with it.

What to do about Gavin Floyd?
The big issue now is what to do with rookie Gavin Floyd once Vicente Padilla comes off the DL. My first reaction was keep him up and send Pedro Liriano down to Scranton. On a team with an excellent shot at the post season, there’s simply no room for a guy that spent most of last season in Triple-A, and didn’t do all that well there (5.20 ERA). That means Floyd would have to move to the bullpen, or one of the other five starters would assume that role.

You can call me out for going with conventional wisdom, but I don’t see Floyd in the bullpen. He’s slower to the plate than any pitcher on the staff, making him a bad choice to come in with men on base. Pujols stole a base standing up in the first inning Saturday. His slow delivery has always been a big knock on him. Plus (and I forget where I read this so don't quote me) scouts have him pegged as 100 percent A-grade starting pitcher, meaning, he has the makeup of a starter, is deliberate in his preparation, and is best when used when he knows he’ll be used.

If someone has to be moved to the bullpen, I’d rather see Lidle there, to come in with men on and induce double play ground balls. Lidle pitched well Friday afternoon against the Cards, but I viewed his performance as the worst of all the starters so far.

In reality though, there's nothing wrong with sending Floyd back to Triple-A at this early, early stage in the season. It’s a long way until October, plus there’s no guarantee he can maintain it. Manuel needs to see how he adjusts to CBP with his curve, which is more of a sinking curve, unlike Wolf's.

In any event, after Saturday's game, I saw a pitcher ready to face big-league hitting. Their decision will be tough, either way.

Jon Lieber, the real deal
The Phils can win any game Jon Lieber pitches if he repeats what he did yesterday – eight innings, two earned runs. I thought it was the best Phillies start of the season so far.

Stats don’t do his outing justice, because the two homers he surrendered happened because he fell asleep up 12-1. It’s also tough to concentrate when you sit 20-30 minutes between innings.

So far, the big Alabamian, now 2-0, shows no reason why he can’t run with any No. 1 in the league.

Not the same Cardinals
What was up with the Cardinals defense this series? Scott Graham and Tom McCarthy, the radio guys, were commenting on how much the Cards miss catcher Mike Matheny already. Einar Diaz was as bad as they get Saturday behind the plate, allowing lots and lots of passed balls. And what was Edmonds doing on that play yesterday?

Phillies vs. Marlins
Here it is: The Phils first crack at the hated Marlins in Florida, where they've had almost no luck in the past. Both teams are 3-3, as Brett Myers (0-0, 1.39 ERA) takes to the hill vs. Al Leiter (0-0, 1.59 ERA) at 7:05 p.m. tonight.

Marlins pitching enters the series with the best team ERA in baseball, with a 1.07 ERA.

Notes from media day

2005-04-10T21:46:00.000-04:00

Jim Deschanie fields questions from Pat Principe of WGAL-8 TV during Reading Phillies media day Wednesday. The Berks Phillies Fan was there.

Second baseman Brian Hitchcox sat in full uniform on a bucket of balls, sipping coffee from a styrofoam cup, watching some of his teammates give interviews with local reporters.

"I'm running on my own clock right now," Hitchcox said, after asking how he could possibly sip hot coffee on the warmest day of the year. "We've been going non-stop. Guys are still trying to figure out where they're going to live, and how to get their cars up here."

Three games into 2005 and the Reading Phillies are still trying to settle into a comfortable routine after spring training. Their flight from Florida departed at 4 a.m. Monday, and the players had only a few hours to doll themselves up for their first official undertaking of the season: the King of Baseballtown banquet on Monday night at the Sheraton Hotel, where they sign autographs and meet town dignitaries under the warp of jet lag.

The team was back on parade Wednesday afternoon for media day at First Energy Stadium, and for the second year in a row, I got to go.

As before, I was there to collect promotional poster information for the Reading Eagle newspaper, and to eat awesome stadium food. During the season, the Eagle runs ad-supported color posters of each player on the back of the sports section. Jeff Fazio, our marketing photographer, takes action shots at the ballpark, and I supply supporting information on each player. This year, I attended the event with our intern Laura Flippin.

On media day, I have about an hour to rush around and gather signatures from each player, to verify information from the Phils media guide (numbers like height, weight and birth date are often wrong) and to ask two tough questions: favorite hobby and favorite baseball player.

At first, players are pretty reluctant about the whole thing, and being approached by someone their own age about hobbies is a little odd, even on my end.

The television and print reporters grab the big names early – prospects Michael Bourn and Chris Roberson, and returning veterans Jim Deschaine, Hitchcox, Danny Gonzalez and Juan Richardson. Meanwhile, I try to pry information out of players like Korean pitcher Seung Hak Lee.

Lee has been back and forth between Reading and Scranton since 2002, and now finds himself back in Reading listening to some guy ask him who his favorite player is. He didn’t understand my question, and the only Korean player I could think of was Chan Ho Park.

“Chan Ho Park,” I said.

“No, no,” he said.

From the dugout, his teammates shouted any Asian player they could think of.

"Matsui!"

"Nomo!"

"Ishii!"

Lee just said no, so I left that question blank. Who can blame him? Chan Ho Park stinks in any language.

I’ve always liked underdogs, so I’m naturally more interested in guys that follow rocky paths toward the bigs. Reading has an unusually high amount of older indie ball and minor league veterans this year. I recognized one, Allen Davis, because I met him Monday night at the banquet.

Davis, a 29-year-old southpaw, pitched for the Ft. Worth Cats of the independent Central League last season, went 10-7 with a 3.38 ERA, 128 strikeouts, allowing only 29 walks. Before that, he was out of baseball. He signed with the Phillies as a minor league free agent and played three games with Clearwater last season. I’m glad the Phillies did extra homework and gave him a chance after a productive job in the Central League. It’s not something the team often does.

Davis started the rain-delayed continuation of the season opener Friday and earned the win, shutting down Altoona over five innings.

Pictures are worth a thousand words, and my eight-year-old Sanyo digital ran out of juice just as I was about to take a picture worth a million: Alex Prieto curled up and sulking in the corner of the dugout.

You didn’t need a media guide to figure out which player played in the majors last season and was now down in Double-A Reading. Prieto, 28, got two brief call-ups with Minnesota and even hit a home run, but ended the season in Triple-A Rochester. He was signed by the Phils as a minor league free agent back in January.

To cheer him up, I asked him his favorite hobby. His first answer was something I won’t repeat. But after a few moments, and when his teammates stopped laughing, he quietly said “fishing.”

The cheerier side of Alex Prieto.

Another guy I liked was RHP Jeff Wilson. In today’s baseball world, a right-hander with a name like Jeff Wilson needs to pitch like Roger Clemens to get noticed.

Wilson, a 28-year-old South Carolina-native and minor leaguer since 1997, comes to Reading as a bullpen arm. His best year appears to be 2002, when he went 4-4 with a 2.18 ERA and 10 saves with Double-A Bowie.

Sandy Koufax was his favorite pitcher when I asked, only after I misplaced his stat sheet twice and called him Mike Smith once. After that, he pulled out a name tag and attached it to his belt. Even professional ballplayers can’t get any respect, it seems.

Jeff Wilson, left, with Michael Bourn. Note Wilson's name tag in belt.

Right away, there is something interesting about this team. They’re older, still hanging on. At this early stage, they’re still getting to know one another, and as I walked around, asking these questions, it had another purpose – for the players listen in and get to know one another.

Here are some more photos from last week:

Despite a long day that started with a 4 a.m. flight from Florida, pitcher Allen Davis is all smiles at the King of Baseballtown banquet.

Pitchers Travis Minix and Seung Hak Lee sign autographs and greet fans.

Third baseman Juan Richardson offers up an autograph.

Outfielder Ryan Fleming lists spending time with family as a hobby.

Catcher Tim Gradoville had a walk-off hit for the Phils this spring.

Growing up in Oakland, Calif., outfielder Chris Roberson said his favorite player was Ricky Henderson.

Floyd throws 7 solid as Phils snap skid

2005-04-09T17:32:00.000-04:00

Gavin Floyd gave up three hits in seven innings, including a stretch when he retired 19-straight batters, as the Phillies snap their three-game losing streak 10-4 to the Cardinals.

The Phillies get a much-needed easy win without a major bullpen meltdown in a game that also featured a big day from Pat Burrell, who went 4-5 with a homer and five RBIs.

Burrell now leads the league in RBIs with 12.

Floyd, pitching to catcher Todd Pratt this game, overcame a long first inning in which he threw 29 pitches and gave up a double to Larry Walker and an RBI single to Albert Pujols. Floyd also collected his first major league hit in the fourth inning.

Chase Utley started at second and hit his first home run of the year off starter Jeff Suppan, who gave up 10 hits and five earned runs in four innings. Bobby Abreu also went deep for his first home run of the season.

Tomorrow, it's Jon Lieber (1-0) against Chris Carpenter (1-0) at 2:15 p.m.

Rotation looks sharp in early going
After one turn through the rotation, Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Randy Wolf, Cory Lidle and Floyd have all pitched well, but today’s performance by Floyd was the best and deepest of the bunch: Seven innings, three hits, no walks. It will be interesting to see what the Phillies do with Floyd when Vicente Padilla returns from the DL. Floyd looked very poised this afternoon against a tough Cardinal lineup.

Bullpen notes:
The game was more of a blowout than the score reveals, as Pedro Liriano struggled in the ninth inning, giving up three runs, two of them earned.

Tim Worrell returned to action, stepping into a low-pressure situation with the Phils up 10-1. Though he didn’t allow a run, he allowed two hits, but was helped by a dumb baserunning mistake by Einar Diaz that resulted in a double play.

Phillies can't spell relief

2005-04-08T20:55:00.000-04:00

The bullpen blows the lead for the third straight game and the bats can't deliver with the bases loaded in the ninth, as the Phillies lose to the Cardinals 6-5 and appear to be going nowhere fast.

Manager Charlie Manuel made a questionable call to go with Aaron Fultz instead of Billy Wagner with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth inning. Fultz responded by walking in the tying and go-ahead runs on nine pitches.

The Phillies wasted a good outing by Cory Lidle, who went 5 1/3 innings, allowed 1 ER with one strikeout, and a solid all-around game by David Bell, who went 2-4 with 2 RBIs and played excellent defense at third.

Manuel’s decision
Somewhere on Balls Sticks & Stuff is Tom G.'s article on how to use bullpen effectively, using your best reliever in the most critical situation. It doesn't get much more critical than bases loaded, two outs, holding onto a 5-4 lead.

It's possible Manual's decision not to pitch Wagner cost the Phillies the game, as Wags, a star pitcher with the Astros, is slipping further and further into irrelevancy with the Phillies. Deciding not to use him begs the question "Is Wagner on the Phils to collect saves, or help them win games?"

I was OK with Manuel's decision to go with Tim Worrell yesterday, since Worrell is proven. But the only reason Fultz is even on the team is because he's left-handed. Otherwise, he'd be in Scranton or trying to find work in some other town. I don't understand why you hand him the ball in that situation.

Other bullpen:
Every one of them: Terry Adams, Ryan Madson and Fultz, struggled to varying degrees today, but you could feel it coming. Trying to contain the Cardinals bats is like trying to put a leash on a tiger.

After 5 innings, including a long fifth-inning battle with the heart of St. Louis' order, Lidle was hanging on by the skin of his teeth. Though his changeup was working and he kept the ball down, he needed Adams to bail him out in the sixth. Lidle only struck out one batter, but managed to contain them.

In the sixth, Adams allowed runners on first and third, prompting Manuel to make the call to Madson, who got Albert Pujols to hit into a double play and Scott Rolen to pop up on the first pitch to end the inning. It was an excellent job by Madson, but the Cardinals were creeping back into it and the score was now 5-3 Phillies.

In the bottom of the eighth, Madson loaded the bases, prompting Manuel to make the call for Fultz. He walked Larry Walker on four pitches, then walked in the eventual go-ahead runner, Pujols.

Top of the ninth
Jason Isringhausen made a crowd of 50,000 Cardinal fans sweat, walking Placido Polanco to lead off the inning, giving up a single to Pat Burrell and throwing a wild pitch that advanced both runners. Jim Thome was intentionally walked afterward to load the bases, but David Bell popped out on the next pitch, then Isringhausen struck out Kenny Lofton to end the game.

Phils-Nats series wrap

2005-04-08T11:32:00.000-04:00

Brad Wilkerson had a monster series, slugging 1.143 and hitting for the cycle Wednesday as the Nationals win their series with the Phils 2-1. (AP photo)

You open the season at home by losing a series to the Washington Nationals 1-2. You find yourself on the unpopular side of a player controversy. Your bullpen blows two games. Your new center fielder makes his first big mistake by offering a Ricky Watters-type "for who, for what" quotable. And your attendance the last two games is the lowest in Citizen's Bank Park history.

What do you do?

The answer: You move on to St. Louis and take out your aggression on the Cardinals. That’s what you do.

Series notes: Pitching
It's not the positive start the Phigtins' were hoping for, but starting pitching, considered the biggest weakness entering the season, held together. Jon Lieber, Brett Myers and Randy Wolf didn't go deep, but pitched an effective 18 1/3 innings with a combined ERA of 3.44. Of the three, Myers offered the best moments, adding a cutter to his repertoire and going 6 2/3 Wednesday.

The bullpen, considered the biggest strength over division rivals, blew it big. Two days ago, having Tim Worrell as the team's setup guy felt dandy. He pitched a lot last year, as BPF No. 1 fan el123chico of A Fantasy Life said. In fact, his 77 games in '04 were third-highest in team history, and at 37, he's had the third-most appearances among MLB pitcher over the past four seasons.

He blew the lead in Wednesday's loss, but I agree with Manuel's decision to pitch him yesterday as a way to test Worrell's ability to bounce back. Let's be realistic: what are you supposed to do – release him? Send him to Triple-A?

No. This is what you do the first few weeks of the season: You figure out what you have and who can help you. If Worrell can't cut it, then you move him down to the 6th or 7th, but not after one bad game. He's a location guy and needs time to zone it.

Numbers:
Terry Adams 9.00 ERA, 4.00 WHIP, .400 BAA
Rheal Cormier 9.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, .444 BAA
Tim Worrell 19.29 ERA, 2.57 WHIP, .462 BAA

Offense:
Despite a fast start by Pat Burrell, the meat of Washington's order outdid the Phillies, and Brad Wilkerson was a monster. Do you think Wilkerson likes being out of Montreal?

Brad Wilkerson .643 BA, .667 OBP, 1.143 SLG, 1 HR, and hit for the cycle Wednesday.

And the rest:
Jose Vidro .357 BA, .333 OBP, .643 SLG, 1 HR
Jose Guillen .333 BA, .333 OBP, .667 SLG, 1 HR
Vinny Castilla .462 BA, .500 OBP, .615 SLG, 0 HR

Two of those guys, Guillen and Castilla, are new additions. I admired how quickly the Nats built a competitive team this winter, espeically in their linuep: Cristian Guzman, Guillen, Castilla. They’re going to get some wins this season.

As for the Phillies thumpers:
Bobby Abreu .083 BA, .214 OBP, .083 SLG, 0 HR
Jim Thome .273 BA, .429 OBP, .364 SLG, 0 HR
Pat Burrell .500 BA, .500 OBP, .917 SLG, 1 HR

I hope Abreu doesn't start as slow as he did last year.

Defense:
I had a suspicion fans might sour on Lofton early, but not this soon. I didn’t see it, but over at Mike's and in an email from BPF correspondent Martin Smith, it's now coming out that it’s common knowledge Lofton often breaks the wrong direction on everything hit his way. ESPN Mag made one "skinny" statement on each team in their preseason analysis, saying Lofton always gets a bad jump on fly balls, and only his speed allows him to catch some, but not catch some.

On top of the way balls sail at CBP, there could be rumblings for Marlon Byrd ... and soon.

Building the Polanco mystique
One thing is certain: Playing Placido Polanco isn't going to hurt the Phillies. The positives, in fact, might outweigh the negatives.

Already, the name "Polanco" has been uttered more than any time his entire career. Playing him more will add to his trade value. Being infamous, as Kris Benson was last season, could draw a high price from suitors. Just as Benson was a top pitching commodity at last season's deadline, Polly will be top shelf for any team in need of a second baseman.

In other words, it might go unnoticed in Philadelphia that Polly played well his first two games, but it won't in other markets.

'Fly balls carry' is last night's lesson

2005-04-07T07:09:00.000-04:00

Center fielder Kenny Lofton appeared out of position on three deep flyballs and the bullpen struggles to hold the lead for Brett Myers in a 7-3 loss to the Washington Nationals. Brad Wilkerson also hit for the cycle, including a triple and double over the head of Lofton.

Here are some other notes from last night’s game:

• Brett Myers looked sharp. He’s added a cut fastball to his arsenal, and was having good success with it against lefthanders, coming in on their hands.

• Kenny Lofton needs time to figure out this park and know when not to underplay balls in center. He did it three times yesterday. Every ball hit to the outfield yesterday sailed.

• Chase Utley looked sharp at second, backtracking on one grounder and hooking it over to Thome. He was also involved in one of the sweetest double plays I've ever seen, basket-catching a flip from J-Roll. Utley also called off Thome on a couple of pop-ups.

• Pat Burrell is red hot right now. He belted a 2-run homer off Zach Day to lead a 3-run rally in the 6th. Until that inning, Day was pitching well. Mike at Citizen's Blog points out Burrell is slugging 1.429 after two games. So far, Mike is up 2-0 on me because, a), Burrell is off to a hot start, and b), the Mets have started the season 0-2.

• Tim Worrell didn’t have it together in Clearwater, allowing four homers in nine games, and blew the lead last night, but I’m confident he’ll scrape off the rust and settle in. The home run he surrendered to Jose Guillen in the 8th wouldn’t have been a home run in many other parks. There was also no wind yesterday, revealing just how much balls carry at CBP.

R-Phils receive royal welcome

2005-04-06T08:35:00.000-04:00

Chris Roberson, pictured, and the 2005 Reading Phillies have embarked on a whirlwind week that included the annual King of Baseballtown Banquet Monday, followed by media day this afternoon. The season gets underway Thursday at First Energy Stadium.

The Berks Phillies Fan was on hand as community leaders and fans welcomed the 2005 team to town Monday, to support Baseballtown Charities, and to crown former major leaguer Dick Gernert King of Baseballtown.

Gernert, a Reading native, spent 11 seasons in the big leagues beginning his rookie year with the Red Sox in 1952. He went on to a long career in baseball that ended in 2000 as an advanced scout for the New York Mets.

As for the players, I heard secondhand their plane had arrived from Florida just hours earlier, but were in great spirits as they mingled with fans and signed autographs. The only baseball-related item I brought was Baseball America's minor league preview, so I snagged a couple of autographs and snapped a couple pictures.

Among them was Baseball America's No. 5 prospect Michael Bourn. The center fielder is making the jump from Lakewood this season and told me he wasn't surprised to be in Reading. Bourn is an absolute burner and stole 58 bases last season, and the organization is very high on him.

Michael Bourn

Sitting next to him at dinner was another speedy prospect, Chris Roberson, who joins Bourn in what promises to be an excellent outfield that also includes veteran fan favorite Jim Deschaine. Deschaine has a great rapport with fans and teammates and drew a big crowd happy to have him back in town.

Jim Deschaine

Juan Richardson is also back this season at third base, along with shortstop Danny Gonzalez. Also of note, veteran infielder Alex Prieto, who played last season in Minnesota, joins the ballclub.

The official media day will be held today at noon at First Energy Stadium.

For the rest of the 2005 roster, check it out at readingphillies.com.

What I really meant to say was ...

2005-04-06T03:55:00.000-04:00

John Smoltz, my pick to win the Cy Young, was rocked for seven runs in 1 and 2/3 innings yesterday in a 9-0 loss to the Florida Marlins.

What I really meant to say was John Smoltz won't win the Cy Young, and the Marlins will win the division, not the Braves.

From Jason Stark today:

• In Smoltz's 3 1/2 years as a reliever, he faced the Marlins 29 times -- and allowed zero runs (in 31 1/3 innings). He then gave up five runs in his first inning back in the rotation.

• During Smoltz's relief-pitcher gig, he made 241 regular-season appearances (249 if you count the postseason) -- and allowed zero grand slams. Naturally, it took him exactly seven hitters to serve up a slam as a starter (to Juan Encarnacion).

• How weird was it to see Smoltz give up seven runs in one day? Two years ago, he gave up nine runs (eight earned) all season in relief.

It's a good thing Dimitri Young, my pick for MVP in my yet-to-be-published AL predictions, hit three home runs in his first game for Detroit. Pheew. I'm at least half brilliant.

2005 AL Predictions
I ran out of time on my AL Predictions, but here they are anyway, just to get them down in writing so my readers have something to use against me after the season:

East
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Blue Jays
4. Orioles
5. Devil Rays

Central
1. Indians
2. Twins (WC)
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Royals

West
1. Mariners
2. Angels
3. Athletics
4. Rangers

Comments: I'll take the Yankees to win the whole thing this year, beating my biggest surprise team, the Mariners, in the ALCS and Atlanta in the World Series. I view Seattle's rotation as all sleeper fantasy picks, their lineup as one of the best in baseball, with Adrien Beltre as a potential MVP. Hey! Richie Sexson is already off to a good start with two home runs. Curt Schilling, David Wells and Wade Miller open up too many concerns with health for me to go with Boston. I don't like the money they threw at Matt Clement, either. Even though Jaret Wright in NY is going to be exposed for the fraud he is, here's the rub: How can teams be expected to win in the postseason when Randy Johnson is on the mound with that group behind him offensively? If he holds up, he can pitch every three games. There's no answer for that.

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, NYY (tie with Dimitri Young, DET)
AL CY: Randy Johnson, NYY
AL Rookie: Jeremy Reed, SEA

Darkhorse: White Sox
Potential Bust: Twins

Only in Philadelphia

2005-04-05T13:14:00.000-04:00

The Phillies open the season at home with a win for the first time since 1980, but a select few manage to ruin the thrill by booing Placido Polanco and Charlie Manuel.

It's a strange, surreal sensation to finally see what I've been writing about come to fruition in front of a sell-out crowd, knowing they haven't been as invested in this team as much as I have over the last few months. It's selfish to say, but it’s like I’m not willing to share it. Especially after yesterday.

In new manager Charlie Manuel's first decision of a long 162 game season, he chose to start veteran Placido Polanco at second base over Chase Utley, contradicting offseason statements by the team that Utley would begin the season as starter.

Manuel defended the move by saying Polanco had a better track record against the Expos/Nationals. He also reiterated that both players will see plenty of action this season, meaning one of them will need to sit while the other plays.

In response, when the players were introduced to start the game, certain fans booed Polanco. For being a steady hitter, a versatile fielder, excellent second baseman, and a productive man out of the No. 2 hole, they let him have it. And for deciding to start him over Utley, who's inexperienced, lesser defensively than Polanco, playing on a day when dead ground-ball pitcher Jon Lieber got the start and Kenny Lofton still wasn't 100 percent to assume the No. 2 spot, they let Manuel have it, too.

Despite all the bad decision making, they barely managed to play exceptional baseball, and only won 8-4. Lieber lived up to every expectation as a pitcher that doesn't give hitters an inch. Though he tired early, he jammed hitter after hitter, and sure-handed shortstop Jimmy Rollins and Polanco gobbled them up one after another. It's also hard to forgive Polanco for the sweet double play he helped turn, and for going 2-5 at the plate.

2005 National League Predictions

2005-04-04T09:28:00.000-04:00

Andruw Jones will lead the Atlanta Braves back to the World Series.

NL East
1. Braves
2. Mets (WC)
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Nationals

Comments: Deepest division in the National League, yet it’s the easiest pick for division winner. History, talent and best GM in baseball on Braves side as they look to break through to NLCS. Mets are uncommon choice for postseason, but free agent gems Martinez and Beltran, along with a handful of players destined to improve, are too good to ignore. Phillies enter 2005 as a darkhorse instead of favorite. That’s a better place for them, and a good climate for new manager Charlie Manuel to ease back into baseball. Marlins have a text-book offense, but back of rotation and bullpen could be a disaster. Expos improve as Nationals, but merely competitive cellar-dwellers in tough division.

NL Central
1. Cardinals
2. Cubs
3. Milwaukee
4. Astros
5. Pirates
6. Reds

Comments: Big, bad offense leads Cardinals back to postseason, but health is a concern. I doubt Scott Rolen’s knee can hold through October. Can returning starters live up to standard new ace Mark Mulder will set? I’m not a fan of the Cubbies’ bats and need to see pitchers Prior and Wood healthy together to believe it. Milwaukee has the potential to be a neat little team. Former Phillie minor leaguer Ezequiel Astacio gets a chance to start in Houston, but offense and defense could bury them. By mid May, Jose Mesa out, Mike Gonzalez in as closer as Pirates put up their trademark hot April, followed by nothing. Is Paul Wilson really Cincinnati’s best pitcher?

NL West
1. Giants
2. Padres
3. Dodgers
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies

Comments: Closer Armando Benitez is the difference maker for the Giants this season. If Bonds returns, they could go deep in the postseason. Jake Peavy emerged in ‘04 as one of the best pitchers in the NL, but talent drops off sharply after his spot in the Padres’ rotation. Kind of a goofy offseason from GM Paul DePodesta in Los Angeles, but they came through with a quality rotation without sacrificing young arms. Arizona and Colorado could win 100 games combined.

Dark horse favorites:
Phillies – If rotation clicks, postseason not unlikely.

Milwaukee – Ben Sheets and Doug Davis could match Hudson and Smoltz as the best 1-2 in the NL.

Potental busts:
Mets – Bullpen already a mess, and can Victor Zambrano and Kaz Ishii man the hull with all those walks?

Giants – Oldest team in baseball, in addition to spring training comments from ace Jason Schmidt to the tune of "Something ain't right."

MVP: Andruw Jones, ATL
Cy Young: John Smoltz, ATL
Rookie of the Year: Andy Marte, ATL

Fantasy Pitching MVP: Ben Sheets, MIL
Fantasy Hitting MVP: Albert Pujols, STL

National League Division Series:
Braves over Cardinals
Giants over Mets

National League Championship Series:
Braves over Giants

Two-minute Marlins

2005-04-04T00:11:00.000-04:00

A Cliffs Notes commentary on why the Florida Marlins will finish fourth in the NL East. While the bats, lead by new acquisition Carlos Delgado, pictured, should click, the BPF has doubts whether the starting rotation is built to endure the rigors of a 162-game season.

Last season: 83-79 (Third)
2005 prediction: 82-80 (Fourth)

Offense: Carlos Delgado was the last big name crossed off the free agent list, making fans second guess NL East supremacy after the big catch, Carlos Beltran, was reeled in by the Mets.

Delgado won't yield the obscene RBI totals some predicted early on. Even I jumped on the bandwagon proclaiming he’d hit 150 RBIs.

That’s a real stretch. Regaining my composure, I see about 100 RBIs, batting fourth behind Juan Pierre, Luis Castillo and Miguel Cabrera. Castillo, in particular, is in danger of becoming an especially bad No. 2 hitter because he supplies almost no power whatsoever. Baseball Prospectus had a funny tidbit on him: Since the strike zone returned to normal in 1969, just 24 other players have come to bat 600 times and had 21 or fewer extra-base hits.

My beef doesn't extend to Juan Pierre and MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera though. They'll rank among the best No. 1 and 3 hitters in the league again. Third basemen Mike Lowell and shortstop Alex Gonzalez also count among the peskiest opponents the Phillies will face this season. They seem to come through with big hits against the Phightins.

Overall, they're balanced from top to bottom …

1. Juan Pierre, CF
2. Luis Castillo, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, LF
4. Carlos Delgado, 1B
5. Mike Lowell, 3B
6. Paul LoDuca, C
7. Juan Encarnacion, RF
8. Alex Gonzalez, SS

Like I said, no big issues with offense. I don't like Castillo much anymore, or Encarnacion, but the rest of the guys can make up for what they lack.

Pitching: I view Al Leiter as one of the more overrated signings of winter, but he could bring a veteran leadership that's difficult to measure.

When talking about how far this team will go, most agree it's as far as Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett, the young, but oft-injured guys, can take them.

1. Josh Beckett, RHP
2. Al Leiter, LHP
3. A.J. Burnett, RHP
4. Dontrelle Willis, LHP
5. Ismael Valdez, RHP

Beckett and Burnett are tremendous overthrowers, but I'm ready to assume they'll both come through this season healthy. If so, I see a 17-game winner in Beckett, and a 15-game winner in Burnett.

It's the other three – Leiter, Dontrelle Willis and Ismael Valdez - that have all the warning signs of a massive implosion. The Fish will be hard pressed to get more than five innings out of Leiter and Valdez, and Willis is a young guy with bad mechanics that teams are figuring out how to hit.

This isn't a rotation built to endure the rigors of a 162-game season, and 30-plus games of Leiter and Valdez will wear that bullpen ragged.

Bullpen: There are early questions whether Guillermo Mota has what it takes to close games. Statheads may argue that his past success as a setup man in Los Angeles will lead to a nice transition as stopper, but there’s simply a mental difference when it comes to the ninth. Closers are the last line of defense. Remember the Arthur Rhodes experiment last season in Oakland? Rhodes was a tremendous setup man for his career, but stank to high hell as closer. Mota is younger and healthier, so I’ll stay safe by calling the situation "iffy" at this point.

Bullpen:
The best are Mota, Antonio Alfonseca and former Phillie Todd Jones.

Conclusion:
I see eye to eye with most writers on the textbook balance of the Marlins offense, but there's simply too much riding on pitchers Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett for the Fish to sustain a drive toward the playoffs. They will compete early, but fall from the playoff race because of a low-endurance rotation and an overworked bullpen.

Drago, R-Phils, enter blogosphere

2005-04-01T15:58:00.000-05:00

Long-time Reading Phillies beat writer Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle has started a blog called "Keeping Score." Drago has been at the Reading Eagle for more than 20 years, covering scholastic football and basketball, the Reading Phillies, and more.

With the season just around the corner, his latest posts take a look at the newly announced additions to the 2005 R-Phils, including a rumor that top outfield prospect Michael Bourn may be ticketed for Baseballtown.

"Keeping Score" will serve as a great resource this season, as no one is closer to the Double-A beat and Berks County sports than Mike.

Best of luck!

NL East shortstop poll

2005-04-01T15:41:00.000-05:00

Readers are invited to vote for the NL East shortstop they believe will have the best season.

The choice is between Rafael Furcal, Atlanta, Cristian Guzman, Washington, Alex Gonzalez, Florida, Jose Reyes, New York Mets, and Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia.

Last season, Rollins led all National League shortstops with 26 win shares.

Win Shares is a statistic that takes all the contributions a player makes, in this case offense and defense, toward his team’s wins and distills them into a single number that represents the number of wins contributed to the team, times three.

If readers are still confused, don't worry. Win shares is simply a stat designed to assign value to how much a player contributes to his team. To put it in context, Barry Bonds had 53 win shares in ’04, Craig Biggio had 18, and Ricky Ledee had 0.

For more, follow this link to the Hardball Times. And as always, readers are invited to comment on their selection on the post below.

Byrd joins Howard in Scranton

2005-04-01T13:30:00.000-05:00

A day after Ryan Howard was sent to Triple-A, center fielder Marlon Byrd also got word he will start the year in Scranton/Wilkes Barre.

Byrd put together an excellent spring, batting .390 with a homer and 10 RBIs in 14 games, making a strong case to make the team as a backup. Byrd’s demotion means infielder Jose Offerman will stay on as a left-handed bat off the bench and Kenny Lofton will start in center.

BPF Take
None of this is surprising to the BPF. In fact, Byrd's story since October has gone exactly as I'd envisioned it would.

There was a lot of blame assigned following last season, and center field drew a lot of the focus. Byrd was an awful sophomore, slugging a meager .321 and only getting on base to the tune of .287. His midseason demotion to Triple-A was justified, and in hindsight, should have happened earlier.

So when the wrath of Philadelphia came crashing down in October, Byrd took a hard fall. Labeled the team’s future center fielder just months before, GM Ed Wade reacted, dangling Byrd for pitching and trading for veteran center fielder Kenny Lofton.

The team was right in bringing in Lofton. They couldn't go forward in '05 with uncertainty at the position. There was a chance Byrd might never come around, and hesitation in playing Jason Michaels too much for fear he’d get exposed at the plate and in the field.

But I never agreed with the majority opinion that Byrd must be traded. In keeping him as a third option at center, I asked readers to step back and look what the team had. He's young, gifted defensively, played stellar baseball in the minors and hit for pop, on top of a solid rookie debut.

Good center fielders are a commodity, and when Byrd was nearly traded to the Brewers for dime-a-dozen relief pitcher Jeff Bennett, I almost lost it.

Here’s something else I don't get. There's a general attitude that if a player isn't good enough to make the 25-man roster, they have no value to the team. In my November 18 article, "Tip-toeing around Scranton," I studied how Triple-A has devolved into baseball’s black hole, when it should really be a holding tank for players like Byrd and Ryan Howard – young, talented, but blocked by proven veterans. If nothing else, Ed Wade has a stack of chips to toss on the table and get a pitcher.

Before spring training, I had a hunch Byrd would reemerge and force officials to reconsider, and that's precisely what happened. I also predicted both Howard and Byrd starting the year in Scranton, and still maintain that’s the best spot for them.

Lofton is the man you want to start the season, and maybe even finish it, but Byrd is your best long-term solution and an asset other teams will trade for.

Howard to begin season in Triple-A

2005-03-31T13:57:00.000-05:00

The big story in Berks was that Ryan Howard was sent back to Triple-A yesterday. Phillies beat writer Phil Gianficaro had the story this morning for the Reading Eagle. (Photo: Reading Eagle)

BPF take
The disappointment is understandable as many fans here in Reading are anxious to see how his phenominal minor-league power translates to the majors. The 25-year-old hit 46 home runs between Reading and Scranton last season, and only got a taste of the major league pitching late in the year.

"Yes, it's disappointing," Howard said in Gianficaro's article. "But I'm realistic about it."

Howard certainly represents a dynamic presence. When he steps to the plate, there's general sense something good will happen. Manager Charlie Manuel described Howard as "a major-league hitter."

Nevertheless, the decision to start him in Triple-A is a sensible one, though not as rational as trading him for pitching would have been. Jim Thome is the team’s first baseman and an excellent one at that. At Scranton, Howard can play every day and stay warm in case he’s called up. One likely scenario has Howard getting called back in May for interleague play. A number of top hitting prospects around the league, including Andy Marte of Atlanta, could also follow this scenario.

No matter where his career leads him, fans in this area will always track Howard a little more after his remarkable season in Baseballtown.

Telly out, Liriano in
The biggest race of spring between 31-year-old Amary Telemaco and 24-year-old Pedro Liriano went to Liriano yesterday as Telly was released. Randy Miller at phillyburbs.com had that story.

BPF take
Looking at the stats, they both had pretty good springs aside from the games I saw. Overall, they both got a lot of looks this spring: Liriaro is 0-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 14 2/3 innings, and Telemaco had a 3.52 ERA over 10 appearances.

One upside to Liriano is, of course, he's seven years younger that Telemaco. Liriano had a 4.02 ERA in 11 appearances last year with Milwaukee, but didn't start in any of those. He was claimed off waivers in December.

Pedro Liriano

I've only seen him once this spring, but he looks like a wicked little right-hander. He was tough on righties last season - they hit .206 off him.

The big knock on Telly is his tendency to give up the long ball, a big no-no especially with 81 games at Citizen's Bank Park. Still, the Phils are giving up a pitcher that can provide a spot start or two, and that's important with a rotation as thin and unhealthy as theirs. Perhaps they envision Liriano as a potential 6th or 7th starter, but for now, he's long relief "B" after Ryan Madson.

Other roster moves:
The Phillies narrowed their roster to 26 yesterday, including these noteworthy moves:

- Rule 5 outfielder Shane Victorino was placed on waivers
BPF: Lost the battle early to Marlon Byrd, had an unimpressive spring. No surprise here. Phils would like him back for Scranton if no other team wants him. My take ... sure. Why not? If anyone cares to contribute to the Victorino conversation, feel free. Anybody? Oh.

- Re-assigned OF Mark Budzinski and C A.J. Hinch to minor league camp
BPF: Rumors of a catchers duel between Hinch and Pratt proven totally bogus.

- (And this one happened March 17): Optioned LHP Eude Brito, RHP Edwin Moreno, RHP Franklin Perez, RHP Robinson Tejada and C Carlos Ruiz to minor league camp
BPF: Todd Pratt era ends next season, junior pudge era begins, baby.

Viva Ruiz!

Braves hope history repeats itself

2005-03-30T10:46:00.000-05:00

The Atlanta Braves are counting on offseason acquisition Tim Hudson to lead the team to their 14th consecutive division title, and beyond.

The Braves are the reason why the riddle of winning baseball will never be solved through numbers and essays, and through study and debate.

With Atlanta, you get a brand of baseball closer to folklore than fact, keeping that old flame called suspension of disbelief alive. Like Mother Goose, they have "characters," like Leo Mazzone, the wise old shaman, and Julio Franco, the man who doesn't age.

Without teams like Atlanta, there may soon come a time when I can plug my brain into a laptop and a season will auto-simulate as fast as Gavin Floyd's 2013 DIP can compute.

As the Braves win their 14th consecutive division title this year, we'll all be wondering, again, how they did it; how they managed to lose their best hitter and pitcher for the second-straight season and still with the NL East by double digits.

There have been rumors for years that with attendance declining - despite a sterling product on the field and the best efforts of the GM John Shuerholz, the best in the biz - something had to give, and it had to give big. After a $12 million loss in gate receipts, the team slashed payroll by $15 million last year, and seemed ready to slash more.

When the season ended, I wrote a piece previewing their annual yard sale. J.D. Drew, their best hitter, was a free agent, as were Russ Ortiz and Jaret Wright, the team's co-leaders in wins with 15 each.

While stopping short of saying they couldn't possibly repeat if they lost all three – and that's exactly what happened - I established it would be a cold day in hell before I picked anyone but Atlanta.

Before I get to Hudson, Smoltz and how they solved it without breaking the bank, here's a look back on 2003, the year Atlanta was the best bridesmaid in baseball.

2003
In all my years of watching the Phillies finish second or lower, I've never seen a team manhandle a division as the Braves did two years ago, doing it, this time, with their bats. It was Atlanta's answer to doubts they couldn’t win without pitchers Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood. Yes, winning titles after losing bodies is nothing new to
them.

Their 5.6 runs-per-game was best in the National League that year. The formula was simple: When a runner got on, the next man moved him along. They put on a clinic for hitting with men in scoring position, almost rubbing it in the Phillies faces.

Javy Lopez, not a spectacular hitter for his career, proved as efficient with home runs as Babe Ruth in 2003, smashing 43 after hitting just 17 and 11 in his previous two injury-filled seasons. Adding to the battery was Gary Sheffield and his modest 39 home runs. Not that they needed anything more, it was also the year Marcus Giles decided it was time to become one of the NL's premier second basemen, hitting 21 of his own. And Vinny Castilla added ten homers from the previous season to hit 22 round-trippers.

With a supporting cast that also featured Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones and Rafael Furcal, it was, in hindsight, the best NL offense of the 21st Century before '04 St. Louis earned the title last year.

2004
How, then, was it possible for the Braves to win 96 games last year after losing so much – Lopez and Sheffield, their best bats – and Greg Maddux, the face of Braves pitching dominance for over a decade?

While they didn't repeat the heavyweight offensive performance from the year before, they were still very good, scoring almost 5 runs a game for 5th best in the NL. However, their pitching was better. Led by a resurgent Jaret Wright who went 15-8, along with 15-game winner Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, John Thomson and Paul Byrd, they allowed fewer runs a game, just over 4, finishing 3rd in the NL in that category. I'm sure manager Bobby Cox would also admit the Braves stepped in a fair-sized pile of luck, especially with Ortiz.

But above all that, the thing I admired most about last year's team was their ability to fill holes. Somehow, they always seem to uncover this incredible depth that allows them never to lose step when a starter goes down. Nick Green filled in admirably at second base when Marcus Giles broke his collarbone. And outfielder Charles Thomas, never considered a prospect with major-league staying power, gave the team just the lift they needed as they turned on the mid-summer afterburners.

In addition, they also managed to, once again, get better miles out of average-to-above-average talent, including third baseman Mark DeRosa, first baseman Adam LaRoche, and probably the entire starting rotation.

The 2004 Braves will also be remembered for Johnny Estrada, who rose to the head of the class among the division's catchers, and the season J.D. Drew stayed healthy long enough to finally come of age. Nearly every new addition seems to thrive in Atlanta.

2005
This season will be Atlanta's return to what got them there – pitching.

I called Shuerholz's deal for Tim Hudson the most important offseason acquisition by an NL East team. At the time, most argued he'd be gone in a year, if not before, but a month later, the Braves locked him up to a long-term contract giving the team their first true ace since Maddux.

Known as an innings eater, Hudson is already a Braves type of guy and would have been a perfect addition for the Phillies. I wouldn't put Hudson in the top ten in the league, but he's among the best in quality starts, his groudball to flyball ratio was 2 to 1 and he's an excellent defender.

I also believed strongly that moving John Smoltz from closer back to the starting rotation was an excellent decision. In hindsight, when ranking the offseason moves, I should have put this one higher. It has the potential to have the biggest impact for the Braves this season.

So far this spring, Smoltz has been excellent, having not allowed a run in 14 innings, along with 8 strikeouts.

In an era when Roger Clemens can change leagues and win the Cy Young at age 41, I expect Smoltz, 37, to do the same, returning to the spot he belongs. I'm picking Smoltz to win the NL Cy Young.

John Smoltz

Lineup:
1. Rafael Furcal, SS*
2. Marcus Giles, 2B
3. Chipper Jones, 3B
4. Andrew Jones, CF
5. Adam LaRoche, 1B
6. Raul Mondesi, RF*
7. Johnny Estrada, C
8. Brian Jordan, LF*

Rotation:
1. John Smolz, RHP
2. Tim Hudson, RHP
3. John Thompson, RHP
4. Mike Hampton, LHP
5. Horacio Ramirez, LHP

Bullpen: Danny Kolb, closer, Chris Reitsma, Tom Martin, Gabe White, Kevin Gryboski

Bench: Julio Franco, Wilson Betemit, Nick Green

* I’d like to pay special attention to Furcal. In a year when defense is the next big thing, this will also be the year defense will get serious consideration when voting for MVP, especially now that Barry Bonds will not win it.

The domino effect will bring "second-tier" shortstops, meaning good shortstops not named Nomar, Jeter, Renteria and Tejeda, into the forefront. That means Furcal, Jimmy Rollins and others.

I believe strongly one of these two will earn some votes for MVP. Furcal is a great table setter at the top of the lineup with improving power. Though Jimmy Rollins bested Furcal in a number of categories, including win shares, Furcal comes through in the clutch more than J-Roll, and is just a step ahead of him at this point. They are, after all, still just 27 and 26 respectively, yet it seems like they’ve been playing for decades.

This "rivalry," if you want to call it that, will be one of the great stories this year.

*The second asterisk is to point out bets are already being taken at Braves blogs on the date minor league sensation Andy Marte gets the callup to replace either Jordon or Mondesi.

Baseball Prospectus called Marte the best prospect in baseball and a future superstar, and Martin Smith, our traveling correspondent, was impressed when he hit two homers in a spring training game he attended.

Conclusion: I see two Cy Young candidates in Hudson and Smoltz. I see MVP candidates in Furcal and Andruw Jones, who’s working at hitting to all fields this spring.

I see a 14th consecutive division title, basing the pick partially on stats, but mostly on history.

Phils face tough decisions early

2005-03-27T08:24:00.000-05:00

Not to make hard decisions harder, center fielders Kenny Lofton and Marlon Byrd may begin the season on the disabled list, just one week from when the Phillies make the final roster cuts.

Before March 11, when Kenny Lofton went on the shelf with a pulled hammy, the major pieces for April 4 were set. Lofton would be the center fielder and likely bat second, with Marlon Byrd winning back a major-league spot as his reserve. Byrd dislocated his finger a week ago.

Team physician Michael Ciccotti examined a number of players yesterday including Lofton and Byrd. Lofton seems likely to begin the season on the DL, and Byrd has a "good" chance, Jim Salisbury reported in Sunday's Inquirer.

The toughest choice is what to do with Rule 5 center fielder Shane Victorino. Victorino, a defensive specialist, must be included on the 25-man roster or be offered back to the Dodgers. If the Dodgers decline, they can keep him.

It was an easy choice before Lofton and Byrd became injured. Victorino hasn't been hitting well this spring, and lost the battle against the resurgent Byrd by a landslide. Victorino played 38 games with the Padres in 2003, and has since bounced between AAA and AA with modest to good success. But with uncertaintely at the position, Victorino's chances of sticking increase. There is also a chance the Phillies may trade for yet another outfielder or add someone off waivers, Salisbury reported.

Who bats two?
Three weeks ago, readers at BPF said they wanted Placido Polanco to get the majority of hacks out of the two-hole this season. The problem is, he's blocked out of starting by David Bell, plus, Lofton has been penciled as the number two.

Bell, who's been out most of the spring with back problems, seems recovered and should be clear to start the season. Meanwhile, Polanco has had a fantastic spring.

BPF take
I’m a believer in riding the hot bat over position loyalty, and Polanco not only has hit this spring, but came on strong at the end of last season. In my view, Polanco is a better hitter than Bell anyway, and the team's best No. 2 hitter period. I'd like to see Polanco start the season instead of Bell, hitting second until Lofton returns. Then, move Bell back to the lineup and resume Polanco's place as super-utility.

Race for backup catcher just good theater?
I didn't believe backup catcher was being contested this spring, but apparently there's a race between incumbent Todd Pratt and challenger A.J. Hinch.

I contend it's more smoke and mirrors.

In 77 games with Scranton, Hinch hit .234, .313 OBP, .298 SLG 2 HR.

In 45 games in Philadelphia, Pratt hit .258, .351 OBP, .367 SLG, 3 HR.

If there’s a legitimate gripe with Pratt, it's age. Hinch is 7 years Pratt’s junior, and Pratt, 38, projects as a high injury risk.

Yet Pratt is as solid a backup as they come, a good defender, good with pitchers, and seems loyal to the team by always resigning.

I’m not sure what this is all about, but my feeling is they're creating a catchers dual to draw interest to Hinch. There’s a dearth of quality backups around the league, and a number of open spots have shaken loose on contending teams. Salisbury today reported the Yankees have interest in Hinch. Since trading Dioneer Navarro to the Dodgers this winter, the Yanks are extremely shallow at the position.

The Phillies are also excited about BPF favorite Carlos Ruiz, who will get the lions share of starts in Scranton, even if Hinch sticks around.

The moral of the story is, major league catching is a commodity, and the Phillies believe they have plenty. Looking around the league, they may be right.

Amazing Subjugation 3: Pitching & dealing

2005-03-24T17:05:00.000-05:00

The conclusion of a three-part series, looking at New York Mets pitching and possible deals, making the case the team has all the right pieces to make the post-season. Outfielder Mike Cameron, pictured, has been mentioned in several trade rumors.

The Mets are the divisional tyrant, achieving success through spending over development, hard work and smart decision making. In a division that features the wholesome, hearth-baked whitebread of Atlanta, the Mets are like Wonderbread, all flash, but hallow enough to mash into a ball you can crush in your fist.

In matters of baseball only, it's not my style to be swayed by hype instead of good sense. (That's baseball only, as I punch in my last four credit card digits and order an iPod).

That's why I've surprised even myself by saying the Mets will be a contender, in spite of noticeable holes that haven't been addressed.

Bullpen
I'll be the first to admit their bullpen is far from adequate.

I wondered how the Mets, who were so willing to overspend, could neglect a significant reliever to improve their weakest area. Resigning set-up man Mike Dejean was smart, but the Mets still lost more than they gained, not in bodies, but in quality. Ricky Bottalico (3.38 ERA in '04) had his most effective season since '96 with the Phils. He slipped away to Milwaukee for $800,000. Left-hander Mike Stanton was traded, and John Franco signed with Houston. Franco isn't a big loss, but Stanton is. The Mets are now missing a capable situational left-hander, or even bodies that can confidently go two-plus. Their absence leaves Dae-Sung Koo and Felix Heredia to battle for left-hand supremacy this spring, and that ain't good.

I scratched my head all winter waiting for the Mets to sign some pen. Steve Kline, a premier left-handed free agent, would have been perfect. They had the money to do it, but he slipped through the cracks and landed in Baltimore.

It can only mean Omar Minaya simply believed bullpen wasn't a big deal. It's the sign of a GM that, first, never built toward the post-season, and second, catered to a new TV deal.

The wallet was open, the merchandise was there, and the man bought Ferraris, but not insurance. Even Terry Adams would have helped. The battle for the second righty spot is between (from what I can tell) Scott Strickland and Roberto Hernandez. Ugh. The four or five spots, besides closer Bradon Looper and Dejean, will be decided soon, and what's left won't be much better than what'll wind up in the trash.

I logged on to Metsblog today. Read this. Are you surprised? I'm not.

Based on two conversations with people familiar with the Mets actions, one a reputable, well-written reporter and the other a person working inside Shea, it appears that the Mets are beyond dissatisfied with their options in the bullpen, and are working effortlessly to make a trade for more help.

Further more, they're not 100 percent confident in Braden Looper's ability to close out games either. From what I can gather, they see Tigers RHP Ugueth Urbina not just as the best set-up man available, but a possible solution if Looper implodes.

Rotation
Myth: The NL East is deep with pitching. Bigger myth: Florida is deep with pitching.

This whole Mets thing started when my befuddled blog colleague Michael Berquist picked the Marlins to win the NL East, and the Mets to finish fourth. He says pitching will be the difference, and I don’t disagree.

Yes - I'd take Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Kris Benson, Victor Zambrano and Kaz Ishii over Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Dontrelle Willis, Al Leiter and Ismael Valdez. It’s close, most wouldn'’t do it, but I'd do it.

The bottom of the Mets rotation has become an in-joke among the blog network. True, Victor Zambrano and the newly acquired Kaz Ishii will lead the league in walks. But they can at least get through 5 innings, which is more than Leiter and Valdez will do. And don’t get me started on Willis. Young pitcher with bad mechanics and a growing book among hitters. His circus act is over.

At the top, I expect A.J. Burnett to have a full, outstanding season following Tommy John. Josh Beckett also projects, in Prospectus’ view, to have a breakout season comparable to Ben Sheets.

But you know what I don't like about Beckett? His blister. You know, the one that kept him out for half a season. It's not something the Marlins can just band-aid.

Overall, I'd rank the Mets rotation second in the division behind Atlanta. I have Atlanta winning the division for a 14th consecutive season (a preview of my next preview).

Transactions
Two words: Barry Zito. Two more: Trade deadline.

Mets fans are already talking trade deadline, and it’s only March 24. The Mets always seem to have chips, but how they use them is a different story.

This year’s list is topped, once again, by outfielders Mike Cameron and Cliff Floyd. The deadline's big catch will be Barry Zito. The Mets will be among the frontrunners.

The Phurnace: Fantasy owner weeps

2005-03-22T15:20:00.000-05:00

Barry Bonds says the physical toll on his knee and the mental toll from the media may keep him out for the season. And to that, this fantasy baseball owner says "Suck it up!"

The old fantasy team was dealt a huge blow today, and I'm not talking about Eddie Oropesa optioned to minor league camp.

ESPN.com is reporting Barry Bonds may miss the entire season to recover from multiple knee surgeries, and recover mentally from the constant pressures of the media.

Said Bonds: "You wanted me to jump off the bridge, I finally have jumped. You wanted the bring me down, you've finally brought me and my family down."

Boo-hoo. What about my fantasy team you big dolt? You can't expect Carlos Delgado to carry the HR load on his own.

So now what? I drafted arguably the best baseball player of all time, and paid the price. Luckily, I drafted Bonds' likely replacement, Pedro Feliz, as super-utility, but he can’t hold a candle to Bonds' production. I actually offered Feliz to another team straight up for Jose Reyes three days ago but was rejected. Now I’m thankful it didn’t happen.

At this point, I’m considering scrapping any effort to add speed in favor of replacing Bonds' power, which would mean Ceasar Izturis would go in favor of Khalil Greene or Jose Valentin. I may also need to dangle a stud starter – either Jason Schmidt or Tim Hudson – for a big bat.

In any event, I look forward to catching whatever scraps fall from the other boats into the free agent pool. Last year, a big tuna, Bobby Abreu, became available. You never know what might happen. I still think my team is in the top 5 of our league, but I know the other owners, once they catch wind of Bonds, will give my inbox the business. My boys, the Pottstown Energy, formerly the Virginville Phillies, are the most hated and feared team in our league.

Work-related
It's a treat whenever the Phillies crossover into my 9 to 5 job. In the April 3 Sunday Reading Eagle, we’re launching a new size, new format TV book. I’ve chosen the Phillies season opener for our big feature, with Jim Thome on the cover. Jon Lieber and Jimmy Rollins will be featured inside. Here's a preview of the cover.

Since most of our readers are older and not savvy with the Internet, I plan on including a three-page synops of Gross Production Average, something for our readers to chew on before they watch "60 Minutes."

I’m not serious. But I did include a syndicated Q&A with Rachel Ray from the Food Network! Hello! Anybody?

Oh.

This Fultz won't fizzle
Aaron Fultz pitched a perfect inning of work to drop his spring ERA to 2.08 yesterday. I won't jerk you around: I don't know jack about Fultz other than he’s a left-hander with MLB experience, fighting for a spot on a team that needs lefties.

Go Fultz. You're better than ... not Fultz.

Oropesa update
For those following the Eddie Oropesa saga, he was indeed optioned to Cubs minor league camp. Oropesa, a Cuban defector, pitched for the Phillies in 2001.

Tug's book in paperback
"Ya Gotta Believe!" by Tug and Tim McGraw is now available in mass market paperback.

Phillies blog update
Brian Michael is posting again at Phillies Nation. Also for new bloggers, Brian’s RSS feed is syndicated by just about every blog house known to man. Check out his syndicates and follow his example if you don’t think your stuff is reaching enough people.

Baseball style coach

2005-03-21T13:37:00.000-05:00

Leather is "in" as we look at what's hip in 2005.

Couldn't sleep last night. Like our correspondent Martin Smith does when this happens, I went through the rosters one by one in my head, filling out rotations and lineup cards. It’s the sign of a true baseball junkie. Colorado did me in and I fell back to sleep.

Lately, I've been gearing up for my NL East preivew and big Phillies primer. Today, a couple of colleagues have posted their own here and here. For now, a few thoughts from last night circa 2 a.m., other than Josh Towers will pitch fifth for Toronto.

The next big thing
I've been thinking a lot about what Peter Gammons said earlier this offseason when he said defense was "the next big thing." The Phillies blogosphere has been talking about it for some time.

I like the way he said it and agree with him, for a number of reasons. First, defensive stats have expanded to become better indicators on how we value fielders.

But the bigger trend, whether he considered this or not, is a broader shift I expect to begin this year.

I believe the home run is going out of style. Small ball and "smarter" ball, including defense, will make a comeback in 2005, and I expect it to stick, at least for a while.

Baseball is as cyclical as bell-bottom jeans. The big trendsetter is ESPN, with Gammons, Tim Kurkjian, Jason Stark and others setting the bar and promoting a new style of thinking. Some might argue that will never happen: A network based on the big play would never put together a highlight reel based on defensive zone rating.

Just wait.

Whether it's the steroid scandal or records that have already been broken, the long ball isn't the high water mark it once was, and has been infected with a bad vibe, to a certain degree.

Where baseball left off, with Boston finally winning, beating St. Louis after the greatest comeback in post-season history, there's something "natural" happening in baseball, underneath the unnatural arms of Jose Canseco and the congressional committee on steroids.

Personally, I embrace the change, like I welcomed back hip-hugger jeans on a chick. This is going to be one, smooth, groovy season.

On tap
Defense is the next big thing, but will it be the deciding factor on who wins the NL East? More on that later.

Amazin' Subjugation Part 2

2005-03-18T13:59:00.000-05:00

This is part two of a 2005 Mets preview, looking at offense and making the case the Mets are better than Phillies fans want to believe.

Center fielder Carlos Beltran is as much of a sure bet as any free agent signing. He’s 28, clutch and gifted in five areas. He'll give Mets fans plenty to cheer about for many years.

In looking at this year's version of the Mets over last season, the biggest difference won't be Beltran, but an existing group of supporting players that are great candidates to improve.

Let's take a look at the Mets lineup:

1 Jose Reyes SS
2 Kaz Matsui 2B
3 Carlos Beltran CF
4 Mike Piazza C
5 Cliff Floyd LF
6 David Wright 3B
7 Mike Cameron RF
8 Doug Mientkiewicz 1B

INF
Leading the list of players with a great chance to improve is Japanese star Kazuo Matsui, who moves back from shortstop to second this season. Trying to live up to high expectations, Matsui was a bust both leading off and playing short.

Kaz Matsui is a candidate to improve in 2005.

Before going down in August and September with injury, he finally started to figure it out at the plate in July, hitting .336 for the month, along with .500 SLG. Though he's not a power hitter, he's a good doubles hitter with decent speed at his position. Matsui, for all the criticism last year, has an outstanding chance to improve, will be playing his natural position, and will assume a more suitable role, No. 2, in the Mets lineup.

The same goes for Jose Reyes, who moves back to shortstop after an injury-plagued campaign in which he missed over 100 games. Reyes is only 21, still learning, and still filling out. He has virtually no power at all, but as a switch hitter with lightning speed at the top of the lineup, he can become as much of a pest as Juan Pierre in Florida. In 52 games, he stole 19 bases. This spring, he’s healthy and currently leading all players in stolen bases.

Jose Reyes

Moving over to the hot corner, you have to get excited about a guy Peter Gammons confidently labeled "Scott Rolen II." Before getting the call to the majors, David Wright solidified his status as the best hitter in the minor leagues last year. He led the Eastern League in BA for most of the season, ranked 9th in the entire minor leagues with .341, then proved he could do the same in the bigs, hitting .291 with 14 HRs. He was easily the Mets best player at the end of the season.

Scouts see him more, so I'll defer to stats.inc for an abbriviated report:

He hits the ball to all fields, does equally well against righthanders and lefties, and hits for both power and average. He shows rare patience at the plate for a 22-year-old. Big league pitchers do not intimidate Wright, and he does an excellent job of working deep into counts. He has a knack for getting big hits, and his power should increase as his body matures.

Here's what he did in 69 big-league games:

69 G .293 BA .332 OBP .525 SLG 14HR

I often sing the praises of Mike Lowell in Florida, calling him the NL East assassin for his ability to pummel his rivals. But at this stage in the game, I'd take Wright over any third baseman in the East, including Lowell.

Piazza
Now a look at the big man, baseball's all-time leading home run-hitting catcher and best player ever from Norristown, Pa. While the other players I've mentioned have a chance to improve, Mike Piazza doesn’t. Even my grandmother knows he’s on a sharp downward slide of his career and poses a huge liability behind the plate and on the base paths. He insists on trying to make it work behind the plate to end his career as a backstop, but his knees and father time are working against him. He's averaged only 389 at-bats over the past three seasons.

But for some reason, he hits .102 points higher when he's behind the plate instead of at first. Does that mean he'll have a better line this year? Who knows. It's such a weird statistic, who can predict it.

Last year was his worst offensively in terms of BA in a horrible, laughable year for the Mets at first base. They tried everything, and got nothing.

Still, at 36, Piazza's still an above-average offensive catcher with the ability to mash to the opposite field. I look for no more than 20 home runs out of big Mike, catching about 100 games, finishing in the middle of the pack in win shares from NL East catchers.

Batting Win Shares 2004
1. J Estrada ATL C 15.6
2. P Lo Duca LAD/FL C 10.1
3. M Piazza NYM 1B 10.1
4. B Schneider MON C 7.0
5. M Lieberthal PHI C 5.3

That list might look very similar, although I argue Johnny Estrada was a one-season wonder and got more hype than necessary because of his high BA. Where'd his power go after the all-star break?

OF
When I first heard about the Beltran signing, my first thought was "They already have a center fielder." For about a week, I thought GM Omar Minaya was trying to fit too many square pegs into round holes, and one of the players being shoved around was Mike Cameron.

I thought this was a big deal at first, but it’s not. Cameron is an equally good center fielder as Beltran, and shifting over to right field, one of the least significant spots on the field, should be cake.

Offensively, he’s inferior to Beltran mainly because he strikes out way, way, way too much: 142 times last year, and became less selective with his pitches, walking just 57 times, his lowest since 1998.

Still, Cameron is a good example of how the holes in your game become craters because of the constant scrutiny of the NY media. Underneath the criticism is a pretty good line. Thirty home runs was a career best and lead all Mets. Fans see the bad BA (.231), and all those strikeouts, but ignore this guy hit a home run every 16 ABs and stole 22 bases. If he can combine last season’s power, and get that average back up to around .260-.265, the Mets are in business. The addition of Beltran to the lineup will make Cameron better. I look for those walks and RBIs to go up and see him as another candidate to improve.

Over on the other side, I’ve been waiting for Cliff Floyd to improve for too long, but his body now resembles a used GMC Jimmy: Good power if you can get it started.

I drafted Floyd onto my fantasy team last season, thinking he was a good sleeper, but right out of the gate he went on the DL. He still managed to get about 400 AB, but he’s far from outstanding anymore and seems to be sleepwalking through the rest of his career. Maybe they can still get you 20 HR if they ask real nice. There will be worse outfielders next season, but Floyd projects in the bottom third.

Bench
So-so bench but potentially deep with outfielders. I like former-Phillie Eric Valent as a fourth outfielder. He’s like a left-handed version of Jason Michaels but with slightly more pop. He had a good season filling in for Floyd. Miguel Cairo is a capable middle infielder. The rest of the bench will likely include C Jason Phillips, INF Chris Woodward, maybe Andres Galarraga and OF Kerry Robinson. OF Victor Diaz will likely start in AAA.

Former Phillie Eric Valent

An offense built to win
Say what you will about Piazza, Floyd and defensive-specialist 1B Doug Mankiewicz. I like the Mets combination of power and speed. I like Reyes, Matsui and Beltran hitting 1, 2, 3 and believe Beltran was the missing piece.

I'm confident the Mets will contend all season and somewhat confident they will win the NL Wildcard.

Amazin’ Subjugation

2005-03-17T07:00:00.000-05:00

The bullheaded refusal by Phillies fans to admit the Mets will be good this year has become a joke, brought on by the shock and jealousy that Carlos Beltran, the best free agent, and Pedro Martinez, the best free agent pitcher, will be playing in Queens.

This is the first of a two-part series on why the Mets are the real deal. Mike Berquist, writing for "A Citizen’s Blog," will offer a counter-perspective later this afternoon.

Remember what you were like in seventh grade, when you wanted the cute girl in gym class to notice you? What did you do? Think hard. I know what I did. I shoved her and called her names. Man I was smooth.

In baseball, they don't get much prettier than the sissies in the Big Apple, and there's nothing anguished pundits of second-tier teams love to do more than smack the Yankees around like school girls.

Now we've come to 2005, when the other NY team, the Mets, are the big spendors, courting slightly less pretty, nonetheless superstar players Carlos Beltran and pitcher Pedro Martinez. Together, teamed with improvements across the board, I maintain they'll lead a 1-2 punch that should be enough to get the Mets back to the postseason.

Before I get to the good stuff - predictions based on recycled stats nobody understands - for newcomers to BPF, I'm speaking as a Phillies fan that believes his own team is underestimated. I still argue the home team will finish below the Mets and Braves and out of the playoff picture (thus opening a whole new can of worms on the Marlins. Save your hatemail for when I can start a new thread.)

In addition, news that Met pitcher Steve Trachsel will be sidelined six months or more changes my opinion a little. The frontrunners to replace him are Matt Ginter, Jae Seo, and Aaron Heilman. It's not going the be the world's best No. 5 starter, but I still have the Mets penciled second in the East and as the NL Wild Card. My prediction for the NL East is thus

1. *Braves
2. Mets
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Nationals

*(default ranking)

And they will finish something like this:

1. Braves -- GB
2. Mets 5 GB
3. Phillies 7 GB
4. Marlins 11 GB
5. Nationals 16 GB

The great debate on the NL East has occupied many a lunch break by bloggers, but it's melted into same tired song and dance in regards to the Mets. Counting them "out," and counting the Braves and Marlins "in," has become as much of a cliché as calling Kris Benson the most overrated and overpaid pitcher in baseball.

Enough already. I'd love to see the Mets fail as much the next WIP caller or Reading Eagle subscriber, but the tired charade is starting to sound like a Modell's sporting goods ad piercing holes into my brain:

Upset your team didn't get the best free agent on the market? Don't wallow in self-pity any longer! Join the legions of fans and get "I Hate the Mets: 2005 Edition." Inside, you'll find dozens of new favorites, as you continue to dodge reality and refuse to admit the Mets are better than you'd like!

Need a quick comeback to put amazn_mook_10 in his place? Try these instant Kris Benson classics on for size!

"Benson! Ha! What an overpaid jerk!"

or …

"Benson! Ha! That sex-crazed wife is sure to ruin that clubhouse!"

Now that's solid. Want more? THERE'S MORE! Need a zinger with a capital "Z"? Then you need "Zambrano!" He led the American League in walks last year, and only pitched there for half a season. It's AMAZING!

Where the Mets will finish
It's as tough a prediction as any in baseball, deciding how the Mets will do. The entire NL East is a tough call this year. Surely, the Mets are the most improved in the division with the duel additions of Beltran and Pedro. And like the Phils and chucklin' Charlie, they enter the season with a new skipper, Willie Randolph.

As managers go, the brightest minds in baseball can't forcast the outcomes. However for players, stats and trends often can. The problem the Mets have in shedding doubt is they play in the media capital of baseball, where holes can become craters. Even my grandmother knows Mike Piazza can't catch anymore. Even my grandmother knows there are question marks in middle relief. But ask a baseball guy to name the biggest hole on the Royals, it might take a while (perhaps because every player on the field and in the dugout might fit that bill.)

In Queens, I say the big holes will be filled by even bigger strengths. For that, I'll have part II of "Amazing Subjugation," tomorrow.

That should give me enough time to look over Mike's stat-based Met predictions and manipulate them to fill out the rest of my little pro-Met article.

The Phurnace: Phils trim roster to 47

2005-03-15T15:59:00.000-05:00

This is the first installment of "The Phurnace," a Phillie-centric look at what's happening around the baseball world. That's blogger code for "There's nothing original to write about today."

Bucktrot, Roberson, others optioned
The Phillies made eight roster cuts Monday. Pitchers Keith Bucktrot and Zack Segovia, 3B Juan Richardson and OF Chris Roberson were optioned to the minor-league camp.

John Castellano, an All-Star with Reading last season, C Tim Gradoville, who hit a game winning hit Sunday in Clearwater, long-time Reading outfielder Jorge Padilla and RHP Francisco Butto were re-assigned to the minors.

Wendell Magee update
Where is former Phillie Wendell Magee these days? Brian C. Engelhardt, writing for readingphillies.com, checks in with the former Phillie, who’s currently out of baseball and looking to get back in the swing. In 2004, Magee played for the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League. Since 2000, he's walked a thin line between the majors and AAA with a couple different organizations, including those free-swinging Tigers of 2000-01.

For a time in the mid-'90s, Magee was considered the Phils centerfielder of the future.

Lefty ranked 35th-best in new book
Steve Carlton is the lone Phillie on a list of the 100 best players of all time in the new book "Who’s Better, Who’s Best in Baseball?" by Elliott Kolb. Lefty ranks 35th all-time on a list noticeably missing Mike Schmidt and Richie Ashburn.

Kolb backs up his list with numbers and facts, and includes players from the Negro Leagues. Featured contributors include Bob Costas, Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. The book was released mid February and is available for as low as $10.50.

Prior, Mauer article worth reading
Aaron Gleeman’s baseball and sports blog is exceptional and it's taken far too long to add it to my blog roll. His latest article is on the reoccurring injuries to Cubs pitcher Mark Prior and Twins catcher Joe Mauer, who were taken 1-2 in the 2001 draft.

Both Prior and Mauer were considered Hall of Famers in the making but have suffered significant injury setbacks. Yesterday, the Cubs announced that Prior will be out indefinitely with an elbow problem, and the team says it’s different from the one that sidelined him last season. Mauer, trying to make a go of it this spring, is testing a surgically repaired knee.

Said Gleeman:

"... the almost parallel stories of Mauer and Prior, both bursting with potential and plagued by injuries, serve as yet another example of something we had more than enough examples of in the first place: There is no such thing as a sure thing in baseball."

Can someone please tell that to Ed Wade.

Fans anticipate D.C., Philly rivalry

2005-03-14T14:58:00.000-05:00

Forget home run records. Great rivalries, like Boston-New York, brought baseball back from the dead, and now that D.C. is back in the fold, it's time for the Phillies to draw lines in the sand.

Washington Nationals blog, www.ball-wonk.com, posted a poll to decide the top rival for the capital's new team. The Phillies earned the most votes in a landslide - 48 percent. Atlanta and New York each earned 19 percent, while Florida, perhaps the biggest thorn in the division, earned just 14 percent.

Bring it on, baby: What it means to have baseball in D.C.
The District of Columbia was the obvious choice for Montreal's relocation, bringing baseball back to the tradition-rich city for the first time in 33 years.

The move was harder than anticipated, however, with what seemed like a decade of feet dragging from baseball, and late roadblocks from D.C. city council on the issue of financing a new stadium.

For now, the Nationals will settle for playing the next three seasons in RFK Stadium. It would have been a smoother transition had baseball selected Las Vegas or some other city. Las Vegas, a growing city with no major sports team, seemed ready to adopt a franchise and put up a team in a privately-funded park.

But with baseball back in the Beltway, the east coast landscape certainly becomes crowded. If the Orioles suffer most from having a franchise on their doorstep, the Phillies, with enough of a buffer zone to feel no effects, are getting the best deal of any team in baseball: a new geographic rival and a visiting fan base with a lousy home park.

Whether the team has staying power has yet to be determined, but any doubts on whether the Nationals would garner initial fan interest have been answered. The Nats have collected checks from more than 20,000 season-ticket holders. In comparison, the Expos were lucky to draw 10,000 a game and had no traveling fan base to speak of.

This winter, fans in D.C. have gotten to know their new team, and it's not a bad bunch. The Nats project as a .500 team next season, and are a few pitchers away from fielding a legitimate contender. Dig those new unis, too.

A word of advice for Nats fans as they prepare for their first season. Don’t leave any sharp objects lying around when you watch the Marlins games.

BPF reporting from Clearwater

2005-03-14T09:42:00.000-05:00

BPF writer Martin Smith reports from Clearwater, under the brilliant sunshine, clear blue sky and slight breeze. It's enough to make folks back home sick.

Martin Smith / BPF Writer
What a day to watch my first baseball game of 2005. After a few u-turns, there's finally a new Spring Training home for the Phils. Bright House Field is a beautiful, small, modern stadium, the kind of facility where you can head to the concession stand for a soft pretzel and a $4 beer and not miss a pitch.

Bright House features Hooters ball girls on the left and right field lines, a grass bank in the outfield where you can sit on a blanket to take in the game, and Frenchy's Tiki Bar Pavillion in left for consuming large amounts of beer.

The Phils won the game before a sold out crowd. The winning hit was by pinch-hitter Tim Gradoville, who singled with the bases loaded.

All runners on board were there via walks as the AA and AAA ball players finished the game. It was a sloppy ending that saw Geoff Geary struggling to retire anybody and Jim Deschaine play a game he would love to forget. Deschaine dropped a fly ball to left that was costly, and later forgot to run from first base when Ryan Howard lined a double left.

Before the reserves filled the field, the regulars provided some fine play. Bobby Abreu walked his first two times at bats, and Jim Thome followed each with long home runs. Placido Polanco had great at bats, lining-out on a vicious drive snared by third baseman Andy Marte, and later roping a single and homering to left. Another offensive star was Chris Roberson, who likely will play in Reading this year. Roberson beat out a bunt for a single, and also stretched a routine single into a double with head down speed.

Bobby Abreu: Solid as a rock in right.

The guy that impressed me the most was super prospect third baseman Andy Marte of Atlanta. Marte made the defensive play of the game, and also matched Thome with two long home runs. Where will the Braves find a position for Chipper Jones with this player on the horizon? Chipper can't play left field, and first base has young Adam LaRoche and fabulous favorite, Julio Franco.

As we left the ballpark, finally visiting Diamond Outfiitters (there were lines to get in throughout the game), I looked back to the field to see Marlon Byrd taking extra batting practice. We exited the ballpark and most of the Hummers were gone from the players parking lot, but entering the lot was Eude Brito. So next to number 77 on our spring training program is Eude's autograph. What a great day!

BPF favorite Carlos Ruiz with his name in lights.

Late-inning heroics pace Phils past Braves

2005-03-13T14:56:00.000-05:00

Tim Gradoville, a catcher with Clearwater and Lakewood last year, hit a two-out, two-run pinch-hit single in the 10th inning to lead the Phillies past the Braves 10-9.

Armchair analysis
Like the game last week, I saw a game decided in the late-innings by young pitchers and defense. The Phillies got out to an early lead when Jim Thome hit a pair of two-run homers, and Placido Polanco hit his second two-run shot in two days. Most of the regulars were replaced after the fifth inning. Both teams traded a couple unearned runs, one off a bobbled flyball by Phillies leftfielder Jim Deschaine. Adrian Herrera, trying to close it out for Atlanta, walked the bases loaded and gave up the single to Gradoville, just as the teams were running out of players.

Looking good
I often say the preseason doesn't mean a whole lot, especially for the veterans, but I'm kidding myself if I didn't say Placido Polanco is picking up where he left off last year and looks sharp early on. From my vantage point, watching the game on a 17-inch television in Schnecksville, Pa. and nursing a Diet Cherry Coke, he appears to be in great shape and seems determined to win back a starting job. And over at Yankee camp in the other split-squad game, there was encouraging news that Pat Burrell went 2-2 with another double.

Pitching concerns
Whether or not the Phillies are saying it, there's early concern about the starting rotation. Vicente Padilla will miss at least two weeks with elbow tendonitis, and already Gavin Floyd, their plan-B, will see action. After Floyd, the waters get dangerously shallow.

This spring, I believe the Phils are searching for an emergency arm that can get the call-up and produce, and are giving mid-level prospects Keith Bucktrot and Robinson Tejeda a lot of looks.

Bucktrot, ranked 5th-best prospect in the organization a year ago by "Baseball America," looked bad once again. Larry Anderson nailed the problem when he pointed out Bucktrot was too slow in coming over the top with his pitches, giving hitters, particularly left-handers, all day to read him. It doesn't help that his fastball has no movement. Bucktrot surrendered two earned runs including a home run in 1 and 1/3 innings yesterday.

Robinson Tejeda throws hard and can make hitters chase, but can be very wild, as he was with Reading last year. Tejeda hasn't looked bad in the two televised games, and struck out two more yesterday, but he also hit a batter hard in the back.

Geoff Geary
A good game pitched by Geoff Geary will be the first I've seen. He struggled again yesterday, giving up three hits and two runs, but earned the win by dumb luck. He's very hittable and shouldn't make the team.

Pedro Liriano and Edwin Moreno pitched the first 4 2/3 innings, each surrendering two runs.

In all, there hasn't been much to get excited about from the young pitchers this spring.

Montgomery defends team's choices

2005-03-09T14:45:00.000-05:00

Phillies President and CEO Dave Montgomery fielded questions on Comcast Sportsnet's Daily News Live yesterday.

This much is painfully clear in hearing Montgomery defend his team's choices, and it's something many of us have assumed for years.

In valuing players and signing deals, the Phillies are very impressed by shallow stats like batting average and saves, and very impressed when players make an all-star team.

He used both achievements in defending catcher Mike Lieberthal, in particular, Lieby's 2003 season in which he hit .313. But in reality, his production that year wasn't much different than in other years, including last year when he was dogged by fans and media for not hitting with runners on base.

2002 RC: 70
2003 RC: 83
2004 RC: 68

There's no question leaving men stranded time and again, as Lieberthal does, beats the fight out of a team. While expectations of how a catcher should perform offensively are sometimes overblown, nothing is more overrated than all-star game appearances, which, for some ungodly reason, mean a lot to the Phillies.

The defining deal of the Ed Wade era is the 2003 deadline move that brought two-time Pirate all-star Mike Williams back to Philadelphia.

Remember, the Phillies were in the driver's seat for the final playoff spot that year, but needed help badly in the pen. They get Williams a few weeks before the deadline, an all-star that year because the Pirates are fielding bush leaguers. He's got a lot of saves, 25, but who cares, especially when your ERA is 6.27, with 22 walks and 20 Ks. We all know the end of that story. The Marlins made fairly quiet deadline deals for closer Ugueth Urbina and utilityman Jeff Conine, stole the wild card from under the Phils noses, and both new acquisitions contributed mightily to their championship finish.

And what happened to all-star Williams? 2003 was his last; he's no longer in baseball.

*RC: Runs Created A runs estimator created by Bill James. A runs estimator attempts to quantify the entire contribution of a player's statistics to a team's total runs scored. It typically involves some positive value for things like hits, walks, steals, home runs, etc. and negative values for outs, caught stealing and GIDP.

Phillies marketing report card

2005-03-08T15:38:00.000-05:00

David Bell is just one Phillie getting star treatment in a new series of dry-wit Phillies promotional ads, unveiled Sunday during the broadcast opener.

It's always a treat to preview the new Phillies promotional TV spots. Last year, I enjoyed the one with several players frolicking in a meadow to celebrate the new grass field at Citizen's Bank Park. Like the ESPN series of ads, I can't get enough of athletes and mascots doing stupid things.

This year, I got the biggest kick out of a Chase Utley-narrated tribute to David Bell, which went something like:

"Look at that swing (shot of Bell swinging). Look and that grab (shot of Bell leaping for a ball). Look at that hair (shot of Bell's hair). Look at that hair (another, slow-motion shot of Bell's hair)."

I'd bet cash money the people in the Phillies marketing department have the Onion bookmarked on their Web browsers. The commercials tend to have a dry-wit that seems to reflect the personality of players like Randy Wolf and Pat Burrell. The push for more Bell is probably a response to the third baseman getting off on the wrong foot with fans - injuries, bad offense and all.

But I wonder if they'd be better served using that spot to promote someone else, and use the comedy some other way. Bobby Abreu is as complete a player in baseball. Jimmy Rollins is the best shortstop in the National League, coming off a breakout year. They're great players worth seeing, and have never been properly marketed to fans. David Bell is a nice player, but not someone you pay to see, and the spot seems a little forced.

I'm especially confused by another ad that replays last year's infamous Jason Michaels bobble in center, which ends with Michaels knocking the ball over the fence for a home run. At the end of the spot, Michaels says something like "The important thing is, we won the game."

But in effect, what the ad says is the product on the field may be lousy, but you never know - we might get lucky and pull one out our rear ends.

Factoring in the so-so Jim Thome-narrated spot, and the so-so Ryan Madson spot, I'd give the new ads a "C."

Promotional item review
The David Bell spot would make sense if later in the year, they had a David Bell comb day. A David Bell comb day would be funny, inexpensive, and a decent way to promote David Bell. Hell, I'd go to David Bell comb day. "Honey, hand me the palmade, I'm going to David Bell comb day."

The best promotion on the horizon is the Sunday, June 12 reversible retro-style hat giveaway, that includes a 1980s script logo embroidery on one side, the Phillies "P" sewn-on patch on the other. They call it a retro-style hat. The rest of us call it a drinkin' hat. Reserve your tickets at phillies.com.

Sunday, July 17 is Pat Burrell and Billy Wagner action figure day, and on Monday, Sept. 5 it's Bobby Abreu's turn to be immortalized in glorious, throat-lodging plastic.

This year's promotional items earn a "B."

Retro-style drinkin' hat

Millwood pounded in Indians debut

2005-03-08T12:04:00.000-05:00

Former Phillie Kevin Millwood gave up five runs and ten hits in one inning of work yesterday in a 12-9 loss to Toronto.

Bud Shaw of the Cleveland Plain Dealer notes that bad springs are nothing new to Millwood, who signed a one-year, $7 million deal with the Tribe this winter. Last year with the Phillies, his spring ERA was 8.80, and with Atlanta in 2001, it was 12.46.

The Indians are counting on Millwood to be ready for the start of the season. The former Phillie No. 1 is expected to be the No. 3 starter for Cleveland.

With Atlanta and Philly, he has compiled a 98-64 career record with a 3.98 ERA.

BPF take
We still believe Millwood will be a better pitcher for Cleveland than Eric Milton will be for Cincinnati.

Phils enter win column as three go deep
The Phillies had their highest offensive surge of spring, beating Houston 9-8 including home runs by Placido Polanco, Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins. Burrell's shot apparently hit the roof of the tiki bar in left field. Ironically, later that afternoon, Burrell hit the tiki bar again, this time looking for babes. And the result - another home run.

The Phils hope to make it two in a row as they travel to Dunedin this afternoon to face Toronto. Brett Myers takes the hill for the Phils.

Do the Phils overlook the foreign leagues?

2005-03-07T14:10:00.000-05:00

The Phillies tend not to invite foreign-league players to spring training, like Japan star Roberto Petagine. Yesterday against the Phils, Petagine went 2-2 with a double a two RBIs for Boston, as the former major leaguer tries for a state-side comeback.

I've often wondered why the Phillies don't sign more foreign league players to minor league deals with invites to spring training, because it seems more often than not, they tend to win jobs and stick around.

Yesterday, the Red Sox brought in Roberto Petagine, who played in Japan the last six seasons and signed a minor league deal this winter. Petagine, 33, won three Gold Gloves and two home run titles playing for the Yakult Swallows from 1999 to 2002 and the Yomiuri Giants the past two years.

Before heading east, the Venezuelan spent five uneventful seasons in the majors with four different teams, his last with Cincinnati, before finding his game in Japan.

You know, they play pretty good ball in Japan, and if you're a World Series-winning GM as Theo Epstein is, what do you have to lose by inviting Petagine? In six seasons, he's averaged a Bonds-like .317 BA, .633 SLG, .446 OBP, to go with a .991 fielding percentage at first.

I'd like to see more foreign league players in Clearwater, maybe one per year. They've got the hunger.

Howard shines in broadcast opener

2005-03-07T10:37:00.000-05:00

Ryan Howard belted a solo jack to right-center, walked twice, and played a good game at first, as the Phillies got their broadcast season underway Sunday afternoon against Boston.

The Phils got out to a 4-1 lead before Keith Bucktrot allowed four runs in a third of an inning as the Sox came back to win 5-4.

What I saw
It felt good to sit down Sunday afternoon with a bag of Lays and a plate of reheated lasagna, turn on UPN 57, and watch the first televised Phillies game of spring.

I liked what I saw out of several players. Howard and Kenny Lofton, who tripled, looked good at the plate. Randy Wolf gave up three hits but didn't allow a run. Robinson Tejeda, at Reading last year, fanned three in relief, and BPF favorite son, catcher Carlos Ruiz, made a play at the plate and gunned down a base runner.

Despite a decent showing yesterday, the Phillies are now 0-4 to open the Grapefruit League, although disgruntled fans shouldn't put much stock into the slow start.

Yesterday's loss can be hung on Bucktrot, who's trying to climb back to prospect status after a disappointing season in Reading. The last half of the game was largely a battle to see which Triple-A pitchers would screw up least, though Charlie Manuel gave extra innings to several regulars, including Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, Jim Thome, Kenny Lofton, Todd Pratt and Jason Michaels.

Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell
It's early, but one gets a sense that two players will be followed in the boxscores more than most this spring: Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell. One is seen through eyes of excitement, the other through unease.

Though team officials believe the Howard outfield experiment won't work, it's got to be tempting not to squeeze him onto the 25-man roster somehow, though the sensible decision is to start him in Scranton where he can play everyday. My prediction is the team starts him in Scranton and brings him back for interleague play in May, where he stays on for the rest of the season.

Say what you will about Howard's lack of experience against proven pitchers; the 26-year-old has a big-league swagger, and is carrying himself like the player who sat in the opposite dugout yesterday: David Ortiz.

But any reasonable baseball mind knows Howard should have been traded this offseason. Forty-six homers and No. 1 prospect status by Baseball America has built a legend out of a player with only 39 big-league at bats. His ceiling was awfully high this winter, and when the team received offers, the Phils insisted he was going nowhere.

In keeping him, that potential can never be fully exposed until 2008 for sure, when Jim Thome's contract expires. And for a team whose biggest weakness last year was starting pitching, the Phillies should have used Howard to bait some team into trading away a stud starter.

That would have been the smart thing to do. But smart is boring, and Howard is anything but boring at this early stage. Watching him blossom last year in Reading, and watching him yesterday, you can see the star on the rise. As a fan, and as an organization, watching him lead the American League in homers would burn like acid.

Fans and officials once got that tingle from Pat Burrell, too, but now the reaction is more like nervous heaves. Though he doubled in his third at bat yesterday, he struck out in his first two, and looked especially bad in his first. The broadcasters made special note of it.

All that said, it's early. Four games in, and the most important thing isn't winning, it's seeing what you got and who can help you.

Early pitching concerns
The injury to Vicente Padilla hurts, but it's not the end of the world as Gavin Floyd should be ready to fill in if Padilla isn't back to open the season. But one more injury in the rotation will become a major concern. With nothing ready in the pipeline, the team would turn to either Terry Adams, Amary Telemaco or Ryan Madson to fill in. The health or Padilla and Wolf will be critical, and Brett Myers and Cory Lidle must be solid at the back of the rotation.

Right now, the starting rotation is the biggest potential problem for 2005.

What's on tap for BPF
Later today, I'll check back in with more on the 2005 broadcast opener, including a look at the Phillies bizarre promotional ads.

Polanco best choice for 2, readers say

2005-03-03T14:01:00.000-05:00

It was close, but Placido Polanco would make the best No. 2 hitter for the 2005 Phillies, according to 39 voters who participated in a BPF poll.

Polanco, last season's No. 2 hitter, earned 11 total votes, edging CF Kenny Lofton by one vote. Lofton was penciled in as the team's No. 2 hitter when he was acquired back in December.

Polanco gained votes as the week went on, after news that third baseman David Bell's reoccurring back problems may force him to miss time.

Chase Utley was next with 7 votes, including one from the Berks Phillies Fan, though news of Bell's back forced reconsideration.

The surprise signing of Polanco is starting to sound not so bad after all. The Phillies had offered him arbitration under the assumption he would sign with a new team. Instead, he accepted the offer, even with the understanding he'd be a $4.5 million utilityman.

BPF take
Some will dispute this, but I like to think I know I little bit about baseball. But when it comes to Placido Polanco, every opinion, notion or prediction I've written turns out wrong.

In the past, I've called Polanco "a journeyman at best," made arguments he was a liability on offense, criticized the team for not trading him last year, and for resigning him this year.

While he needs to raise his OBP to be a truly effective No. 2 (during one stretch last season, he went one month without taking a walk), I'll admit to underestimating Polanco badly the last two seasons. To his defense, he's also been unlucky with injury setbacks.

The truth is, even if Polanco was blocked out of a starting spot at second or third, he's going to get his at bats one way or another. He's a good defender at multiple positions, and a good hitter who improved his BA and SLG as the year went on.

Even with a healthy Bell, a number between 400-450 ABs isn't unreasonable. When Thome needs a break, which will happen more often this year, expect Utley to slide over to make room for Polanco at second, in addition to an occasional platoon start.

But now that Bell could be hobbled all season, it could be more like 500 ABs, comparable to other super-utility men of the NL, like Pedro Feliz or Ryan Freel.

Wade Miller update

2005-03-01T14:50:00.000-05:00

The Boston Herald reported yesterday that Red Sox pitcher and Berks County native Wade Miller is scheduled to throw off the mound today for the first time in over six months.

Miller has been long-tossing without complication, and will throw a 15-20 pitch bullpen session this afternoon, the Herald reported.

Miller pitched in only 14 games last year due to a frayed labrum, and is expected to miss the first month of the season.

Jon, Paul get back to where they belong

2005-03-01T12:35:00.000-05:00

As the smoke clears from a helter skelter offseason, baseball connoisseurs are singing the praises for the signings of Philadelphia's Jon Lieber, left, and Anaheim's Paul Byrd. Both pitchers returned to action last summer after Tommy John surgery, and should be tremendous bargains for their new teams.

Lieber and Byrd aren't household names, and among fantasy baseball aficionados, project as mid-to-late rounders based on low strikeout totals.

But in the real world of baseball, they could be the most valuable assets to their respective rotations, offering consistency and plenty of deep starts, all for a pretty good price.

Skeptics should realize Tommy John surgery is just another part of a pitcher's career these days, many recipients return feeling better than ever, like the Cub's Kerry Wood.

"I hit my top speed (in pitch velocity) after the surgery," Wood said to USA Today in a 2003 article, "I'm throwing harder, consistently."

All signs point to Lieber and Byrd, a former Phillie and all-star, returning to full strength. Lieber was out for the entire 2003 season with the injury. Before that, the former Cub was just hitting his stride, winning 20 games and posting a 3.80 ERA in 2001 before his elbow gave out halfway through 2002. Byrd pitched in 33 games with Kansas City on 2002, signed with Atlanta, but didn't pitch again until June of 2004.

Sabermetric stat houses like Baseball Prospectus agree that Lieber should be in the clear, finding no conclusive trends that project declining production after Tommy John. So why did the Yankees let Lieber go?

"In retrospect we probably should have picked up the option (on Lieber)," Yankee GM Brian Cashman said recently. "But who knew the market was going to explode the way it did?"

Yankee GM Brian Cashman toyed with a number of overpriced free agents for weeks after Lieber signed with the Phillies, including Eric Milton, who opted for Cincinnati. Cashman would later fill the back of their rotation with 29-year-old Braves free agent Jaret Wright.

Wright was as bad as any pitcher in baseball during the 2002 and 2003 seasons. Last year's performance (15-8, 3.28, 159 SO) is seen by many experts as a stroke of luck and a risky signing by the Yanks.

So how did Lieber slip through the cracks? Simply put, Lieber isn't as flashy as most fans would prefer, and his injury problem became overblown. Several GMs were later quoted as saying Lieber was among the sharpest signings of the offseason.

"In implying that Lieber was not their preferred pitcher because he doesn't miss bats, the Yankees missed the forest for the trees," Baseball Prospectus said in their annual. "Lieber allowed a ton of hits ... but because he was affective against righties and walks no one, he was better than average at baserunners allowed."

You can’t say enough about Lieber’s control and ability to keep men off base. According to Bill James, Lieber was second in the AL in getting pitches into the strike-zone at 59.8 percent. James also calculated that his 1.58 groundball to flyball ratio was one of the ten best in the AL in 2004. For Reading Eagle readers just checking in, click here for writer Mike Berquist's take on his Phllies blog.

Like the Braves school of pitching? I do. Lieber is Leo Mazzone's dream: deadly accurate, speeds up and slows down his strikes, and at Citizen's Bank Park, will bury the legacy of the lucky, fly-ball inducing Milton.

The Braves were patient with Byrd during his own recovery from reconstructive elbow surgery, and inserted him back in the rotation in June. He went 8-7 with a 3.94 ERA.

Like Lieber, Byrd is an inning-eater with great command, posted a K/BB ratio better than 4.0 in 19 starts last season, and says his velocity is even better than before the surgery.

With Anaheim, potentially the most explosive offense in the American League, I don't see any reason Byrd can't win 15 games or more.

Contract comparisons:
Milton: 3-year, $25.5 million
Wright: 3-year, $21 million
Lieber: 3-year, $21 million
Byrd: 1-year, $4.5 million

A Fantasy Life

2005-02-28T10:43:00.000-05:00

Basketball hasn't taken off the way baseball has in the blogosphere, but here's a good hoops blog that debuted last week from BPF No. 1 reader Stu, known online as el123chico.

"A Fantasy Life" presents a Philadelphia-based rundown of who's hot and who’s not in the world of NBA fantasy basketball, plus some opinions on the Philly hoops scene. Stu recently offered an extensive report on the Chris Webber deal and the other deadline moves around NBA.

"A Fantasy Life" is shaping up to be a proficient resource that stays on topic, and manages to fill in the blanks for those of us who haven't been paying attention.

Best of luck, Stu.

I miss Doug

2005-02-24T12:48:00.000-05:00

Doug Glanville, the slim center fielder with an Ivy League degree, leaves a void in Philadelphia as large as the one in the seat of his uniform pants. Now in Yankee camp, here's a look back at the Glanville era in Philadelphia. (Photo: Diane Staskowski, Reading Eagle, 1998)

My favorite heckle of all time is one I heard directed at Doug Glanville during a Marlins-Phillies game in 2003. A Florida fan shouted "Where's your ass, Doug!?"

It's strange seeing Glanville, a Phillie for six of the last eight seasons, in Yankee camp. Over his 9-year career, he's always been different, better suited for band camp than baseball camp. But alongside Derek Jeter, A-Rod, and Alyssa Milano-sweetheart Carl Pavano, it's like he stumbled into a Calvin Klein photo shoot on his way to a Star Trek convention.

As a fan, I've always been fascinated by quirky players. Glanville truly doesn't fit the Yankee mold, or any baseball mold for that matter. Just as his uniform hangs over him like a sack, Glanville and baseball weren't supposed to fit, either. When he was a kid, he adopted the Phillies as his favorite team, even though he grew up a stone-throw away from Yankee Stadium in Teaneck, N.J. Though he was athletic, the pursuit of knowledge, not home runs, pushed him most. He would graduate with honors from the University of Pennsylvania with a degree in engineering, claiming Lewis Lattimer, a great African-American man of science, as his inspiration.

But after college, baseball, not Pulitzers, came calling. He was drafted by the Cubs and spent his first two Major League seasons there before a trade for second baseman Mickey Morandini sent him back to his college hometown for the next five. His best season was 1999 (.325 BA .376 OBP .457 SLG, 34 SB) when he posted all-star numbers for a center fielder. After stints with the Cubs and Rangers, he resigned with the Phillies last year, a one-year, $1 million contract.

Baseball-wise, it was a move the Phillies shouldn't have made. Added to the cluttered centerfield mix of Byrd, Michaels and Ledee, his uselessness at the plate (.210 BA, .244 OBP, .265 SLG ) undercut the benefits of playing him in the field.

Today
Glanville was brought in by the Yanks as a non-roster invitee to compete for the spot vacated by Kenny Lofton. At 34, his primary competition is Bubba Crosby for the final defensive reserve spot in outfield. Mark Feinsand, covering the Yankees for mlb.com, believes he is the frontrunner to win that spot. If not, Glanville could retire.

Best and worst Glanville moments in Philadelphia:
His best and worst moments both came last year. On Sunday, April 18, Glanville blasted a walk-off home run to lift the Phillies over the Montreal Expos 5-4 to cap a three-game sweep. He was greeted at the plate by an onslaught of teammates. Man they loved Doug.

The worst: On July 25, Glanville misplayed Michael Barrett's short fly ball leading off the ninth inning, costing Eric Milton a no-hitter, and eventually, the game. Fans came down hard on Glanville, but I still maintain it wasn't his fault.

Favorite Glanville article:
I can't believe it's still online: Jason Stark's retelling of a Bob Brookover story in the Philadelphia Inquirer on how Glanville’s unbelievable home run against Curt Schilling was payback for an online Everquest incident.

Who bats two?

2005-02-23T16:16:00.000-05:00

When the Phillies traded for Kenny Lofton, consensus was he'd fill the No. 2 spot in the lineup most games. And with that, let the first baseball debate of the Charlie Manuel era begin.

Third baseman David Bell is suffering reoccurring back spasms, and Placido Polanco, a prototypical No. 2, could regain a starting spot replacing Bell. Chase Utley enters the mix as a player with some speed and the ability to reach base. Jason Michaels will platoon in center and has hit second before, and Marlon Byrd, last year's opening day No. 1, could return to rookie-year form and provide speed at the top.

I see plenty of candidates to hit second. When it's all said and done, which Phillie would you like to get the most ABs out of the two-hole? Voting has already started, and it's anyone's game.

Vote in our poll, located on the right side of the screen. Post your comments in the comments section below.

Welcome Reading Eagle readers

2005-02-22T16:03:00.000-05:00

Today marks the first day of Berks Phillies Fans access from readingeagle.com. Berks Phillies Fans is an independently-operated Web log established in June of 2004, offering alternative viewpoints on the Phillies and the world of baseball.

Jason Weitzel of Reading Eagle's marketing and promotions department serves as the sites's editor and lead writer. Martin Smith, avid fan and owner of Berkleigh Travel in Kutztown, also contributes.

For readers new to Berks Phillies Fans, or BPF for short, you won't find a whole lot of game coverage or headline news here. The site is designed to provide essays, analysis and opinion outside the mainstream of traditional baseball coverage. The Reading Eagle is still your primary source for the latest news from around baseball, including interviews and daily game coverage. BPF was established to inject unconventional perspectives and humor into the mix, and allow readers to do the same.

Baseball is the greatest sport in the world, and sites like this one exist all over the Internet. Groundbreaking baseball writers, such as Bill James, Rob Neyer, Peter Gammons and Jason Stark are just a handful of baseball minds that have embraced the Internet as the sport's unofficial roundtable.

So welcome, check back often, and contribute to the conversation. Let's go, Phillies!

Can Madson stay squeaky clean?

2005-02-22T11:37:00.000-05:00

With no starter making it past the 7th inning in the first half of the 2004 season, the work of middle relief became a critical factor in keeping the Phillies in the playoff hunt. In that respect, no pitcher contributed to the success of the team more than rookie Ryan Madson.

When Vicente Padilla and Randy Wolf went down with injury, fans assumed the team would call Madson's name to fill a spot in the rotation. Instead, GM Ed Wade dipped into the free agent pool and signed Paul Abbott. The results were less than stellar, and by the time the regulars regrouped, the race was over.

2004 marked the first time in years the bullpen emerged as a noticeable strength. For mop-up duty, the team would typically slap together a squad of pitchers like Hector Mercado, Dave Coggin and Jose Santiago. But the success of rookie Ryan Madson in the middle was like nothing the team had seen in years.

Though he stuck out his share – 52 for the season and 5.8 per nine innings – Madson's brilliance came from making few mistakes in other areas. He kept the ball on the ground more than any pitcher still on the roster, surrendered 2.2 walks per nine, and less than one homer per nine.

For fans still clamoring for Madson to move into the rotation, understand the team leaned on him like a starter anyway. Bowa handed him the ball for 53 tough innings in the first half, 77 in all before a pinkie injury sent him on the DL. For the season, Madson finished 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA.

Though his success isn't a huge surprise, it's unrealistic to expect the same outstanding results in 2005, and wrong to believe he’s better suited for the rotation than Brett Myers.

Entering the season, there was no book on Madson. Nost NL hitters never faced him and had trouble reading his delivery. Madson also benefited from some pretty good defense. While his ERA is a low 2.34, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching*) was 3.95.

Madson was never as highly-regarded as other prospects, like Myers or Gavin Floyd, but scouts believe his curveball has improved dramatically since the minors, to go with a good change-up and average fastball.

The Phils are thrilled he's become a surprise weapon, arguably the most valuable component of their bullpen, and one of the best middle relievers in baseball last season. Of 22 BPF readers polled, 18 believed the Phillies should keep him in the pen.

As an indication of his worth, this winter he was coveted by several GMs, including number-cruncher Billy Beane of Oakland, who reportedly tried to deal Madson and Ultey away for one of the big three.

*FIP according to Harball Times (www.hardballtimes.com): Fielding Independent Pitching. Essentially an approximation of what the pitcher's ERA would be with an "average" defense behind him. The formula is (13xHR + 3xBB - 2xK)/IP plus a league-specific factor (around 3.20).

A story of life, love and buttocks

2005-02-21T14:08:00.000-05:00

You probably haven't heard, but Jose Canseco authored a new book about injecting high-profile athletes in the butt with steroids. The BPF offers some quick thoughts on the controversial best-seller, "Juiced."

I had a chance to read "Juiced" this weekend. Despite the contradictions, wrong dates, and at least one misspelling of "McGwire," it's not that bad, story-wise. I only believe about 75 percent of it, but fact or fiction, I'm right there with him inside the Oakland Coliseum bathroom stall, with Mark McGwire's big, white behind in plain sight.

What impressed me most about Canseco the writer (kind of like saying Incaviglia the dancer) is he maintains a logical flow. That's more than you can say about some sports books. For instance, I'm reading "The Last Season" by Phil Jackson. Jackson is supposedly an academic of the sports world. I dare anyone to tell me the point of this horrible book.

On the steroid issue, I haven't posted anything on the subject, and it's not that I'm disinterested. I've kept silent for the same reason professional writers have been silent about it for years. It breaks our understanding of the game, and our illusion of what is real. Ask Mike Lupica in hindsight if the "Summer of '98" is still the magical season that inspired his best-selling book.

So a juicy thumbs up for "Juiced," for challenging conventional wisdom the way Jim Bouton did in "Ball Four," and for spinning an enjoyable yarn.

David Bell contributes to new book

2005-02-21T13:00:00.000-05:00

Phillies third baseman David Bell is a featured contributor in "Smart Baseball: How Professionals Play the Mental Game," written by his father and former major leaguer Buddy Bell. The book arrived in stores recently, despite an online publication date of March 1.

Though it's far from the most talked about book in baseball these days, Bell, with help from author Neal Vahle, study the differences between players with talent and players with competitive drive, intuition and intelligence.

Bell assembled thoughts from dozens of players and former players on the importance of a strong mental approach. Some of the contributors include Phillies pitcher Tim Worrell and GM Ed Wade. Former Dodger pitcher Orel Hershiser also features prominently in the book.

The Bells represent perhaps the most successful three-generation baseball family in history. Buddy Bell's other two sons, Rick and Mike - currently playing in AAA - also contribute to the book.

Gus Bell played in the Major Leagues from 1950 to 1964. Buddy Bell played from 1972 to 1989.

Mind Games: Vicente Padilla's War

2005-02-18T01:51:00.000-05:00

Forget all the talk about Pat Burrell's wrist. The season's essential body part rests on the shoulders of the Phillies most enigmatic player.

On Monday, Philadelphia Daily News columnist Bill Conlin shared with readers what it'd be like if Pat Burrell's wrist could talk, but in real life, his wrist would have about as much to say as Vicente Padilla.

The introverted right-hander, considered by many scouts to have the best stuff in the rotation, doesn't talk to the press anymore. He even cut ties with "La Prensa," the national newspaper of Nicaragua, where they proudly hail him as the nation's best ball player since Dennis Martinez.

There’s a lot riding on Padilla’s big noggin. In the post-Schilling era, no pitcher has looked more dominant at times than Padilla. Labeled a pitcher with the right tools but wrong head, he's known to blast through 2 2/3 innings, walk the pitcher, and give up a home run to the next batter.

From someone moderately in tune with the new math of baseball, I still haven't found any numbers to gauge "concentration," because I'd love to apply them to Padilla.

Off the mound, one gets the impression teammates and team officials can't get a handle of Padilla, either. Certainly there are cultural barriers. He's the only current Major Leaguer from Nicaragua. The team's other misunderstood Latio player, Bobby Abreu, a native of Venezuela, speaks highly of him, often offering positive quotes in La Prensa.

For those of us on the outside, this is what we know: Best Nicaraguan baseball player since Dennis Martinez. All-star. Lightning stuff, including 95 mph fastball with movement. Drops velocity to 86-87 mph in pressure situations. Has no approach to hitting. Faithfully returns to Nicaragua in offseason and plays baseball, pitching more innings than Phillies would like. Involved in two off-season automobile accidents in past two years, one resulting in a fatality. Allegations of alcohol abuse stemming as far back as his days with Arizona, allegations he hasn't personally denied. Has since halted interviews with press. Alleged insubordination with former manager and former coach.

The problems with Larry Bowa came to light this week on XM Radio, when the former manager said Padilla would take himself out of games rather than throw 100 pitches. During games, he's shown little patience for error. Kevin Roberts of the Courier Post wrote a column last year titled "Phils Need Padilla to Get It." Roberts reported:

"On Aug. 21 in Milwaukee, Jason Michaels butchered a fly ball and Padilla discarded his glove in disgust. He was, literally, backing up home plate barehanded. Padilla quickly gave up five runs.

"Against the Braves Sept. 1, Padilla got upset at an umpire's call and immediately went south. His fastball dropped to 87-88 mph and he allowed five runs in five innings. Afterward Bowa - who's always been in Padilla's corner - chided him for losing focus. It was an astonishing display; Padilla came perilously close to quitting on his teammates."

The "it" goes well beyond anguish following a botched play or blown call. Zeroing in on specifics, Padilla was generally terrible last year with runners in scoring position, posting an ERA of 15.23, almost two runs higher than the next highest starter, Brett Myers, with 13.31.

RISP
Milton: 12.98
Wolf: 13.07
Millwood: 13.27
Myers: 13.31
Padilla: 15.23

Going deeper into categories considered tough situations - noting Padilla pitched in only 20 games, Wolf 23 and Millwood 25 - there's evidence at least part of his problems are mental.

Pitching from behind in the count:
Milton: 5.17 ERA
Wolf: 5.35 ERA
Milton: 7.09 ERA
Myers: 7.57 ERA
Padilla: 9.82 ERA

Man on second:
Wolf: 3.27 ERA
Milton: 4.70 ERA
Myers: 4.74 ERA
Millwood: 7.94 ERA
Padilla: 9.00 ERA

Man on first and second:
Myers: 7.71 ERA
Wolf: 8.18 ERA
Milton: 10.97 ERA
Millwood: 11.70 ERA
Padilla: 16.20 ERA

And concentration? Pitching with two outs:
Milton: 3.00 ERA
Myers: 5.69 ERA
Wolf: 6.03 ERA
Millwood: 6.39 ERA
Padilla: 6.81 ERA

When I looked into men on third, second and third, and bases loaded, I felt there were too few chances in 2005, and surprisingly, Padilla actually did OK with the bases juiced. (I'll continue to look for some more stats this afternoon - I ran out of time last night).

This next one is my favorite. Pitching against pitchers should be an automatic out, but creates an awkward standoff. Here's how the starters measured up against their adversaries:

vs. pitchers
Millwood: 0.00 ERA
Milton: 0.44 ERA
Wolf: 0.77 ERA
Padilla: 2.31 ERA
Myers: 3.14 ERA

Padilla isn’t inconsistent. He’s consistently beating himself in pressure situations.

Much has been made about the positive attitude and smiling face of new manager Charlie Manuel (take Manuel’s smile, Burrell's wrist, and T.O.'s ankle, and you can start a media Frankenstein). If a single player stands to gain anything from Bowa's absence, it's the player with the most raw talent, but most mental baggage, and that's Padilla. Unlike Burrell, there's no issue with mechanics. It's all there … ready and waiting.

In a way, Padilla is symbolic of what 2005 means and how the season will eventually unfold. With too many doubts surrounding Randy Wolf and Brett Myers, Padilla has, in my view, the best shot to improve of those three. Readers of BPF agreed, with over 50 percent picking Padilla to have the most improvement of any Phillie starter this season.

Lieber article exposes media shortcomings

2005-02-16T10:22:00.001-05:00

For those who haven't checked out Mike Berquist's Citizen's Blog, today is the day to discover why BPF is calling his site “one of the best Phillies resources anywhere.” And I’ll take this opportunity, too, to address why many baseball fans have grown critical of newspaper coverage.

Certainly, the accessibility of the Internet is hard to match, but I struggle to find breaking, cutting-edge information in established media these days.

It's no longer good enough for writers to skate by just because they have access to a call list and printing press. The Internet has broken down those walls. Now, it comes down to talent, adopting an issue, and filling a news void, especially since sites like this one extend far beyond where paperboys can travel.

I haven’t seen an article that dissects the Phils biggest winter signing, Lieber, anywhere, until today. And for my .50 cents, that doesn't cut it anymore.

BPF welcomes new Berks neighbor

2005-02-15T13:19:00.000-05:00

The name 'Phillies' isn't the only word in the title of this blog. There's also 'Berks,' which isn't as interesting, but deserves a little love.

So in keeping with our end of the bargain, we refer you to Al Walentis' "The Editor's Blog," the first Weblog dedicated to Berks County news, and some other stuff, too. The Editor's Blog is located on the Reading Eagle Web site, at www.readingeagle.com. (RSS feed.)

Be sure to check out Al’s heartwarming stories about Berks County and its people, like today’s story about a lunatic dressed in a monkey suit on the roof of Oley Valley High School. It's the second time in four years Oley, Pa. made AP headlines, the other was when maniac bus driver Otto Nuss kidnapped elementary school students and drove them to Maryland.

I'm reminded of a Jason Brudereck column in the Reading Eagle, when he asked readers to come up with a new motto for the city of Reading. My favorite:

"Reading: Come run with the pit bulls."

Bowa, Kalas on XM Radio today
Tom G. at Balls Sticks & Stuff caught today’s launch of the new MLB Channel on XM Radio. Larry Bowa, with co-host Mark Patrick, interviewed Harry Kalas. Tom offers some snippets from the broadcast, including some juicy stuff on Vicente Padilla.

UPN, ESPN kick off preseason baseball schedules
UPN 57 will air the first televised preseason Phillies game Sunday, Mar. 6 against Boston. It’s the first of six preseason games to be broadcast on either UPN or CSN.

On ESPN, Mike Piazza leads the New York Mets against the new Washington Nationals in the first of eight nationally-televised preseason games, Wednesday, Mar. 2 at 1 p.m.

Despite moves, CF pool still tepid

2005-02-13T13:45:00.000-05:00

For the second year in a row, the Phillies will begin the season with too many lukewarm bodies in center. Marlon Byrd, considered the future of the position a year ago, could have limited opportunities to prove himself in Clearwater.

It's no surprise the Phillies made centerfield a priority this winter, but for all the activity, the future of the position remains a mystery.

Marlon Byrd, cosidered the future a year ago, fell victim to a sophomore slump and enters spring training in limbo. Many scouts have written off the 27-year-old off for good, citing poor bat speed and a statuesque plate methodology that makes it difficult to adjust to pitches.

So in the first big move of the offseason, the Phillies traded for veteran Kenny Lofton, a favorite of new manager Charlie Manuel.

With the new faces at center, including Lofton, 38, and Rule 5 pickup and defensive specialist Shane Victorino, to go with Jason Michaels, recipient of a new $825,000 contract, and Byrd, it's astounding how similar 2005 is to 2004, despite all the shuffling.

Lofton will assume the starting role Byrd claimed in '04. Michaels returns as all-purpose outfielder and could platoon with Lofton. Victorino could assume a Doug Glanville-esque roll as a late-inning substitution, should the team elect to keep him. Ricky Ledee, now in Los Angeles, also factored into the mix last season, and that's about all Byrd is expected to do.

But in reality, the Phillies didn't improve so much as complicate matters in center, a theme that permeated the rest of Philadelphia's muddled offseason.

Placido Polanco was expected to sign elsewhere, but unexpectedly returned, costing the Phillies $4.6 million, and for now, is slated as nothing more than a high-priced utility player.

The Polanco resigning also impeded on the two-year deal to Tomas Perez, signed back in October. The Perez signing was intended to secure a flexible infield presence in the absence of Polanco. Last season under Larry Bowa, Perez quietly started 56 games, but should only expect half that, with fewer games at second and first.

For the second year in a row, the Phillies will start the season with too many bodies in center. The addition of Victorino handcuffs the team into giving him plenty of playing time in camp. Keeping him boxes out yet another roster spot that might otherwise go to a player with the best spring. If the Phils elect not to keep him, he must be offered back to the Dodgers for $25,000.

No player will feel the roster pinch more than Byrd. Unable to trade him, and electing not to play winter ball, it became critical for Byrd to get in his swings in Clearwater, and make the most of those swings in order to regain his status as a player with any kind a future in Philadelphia.

But even if Byrd suddenly figures it out, his stock in center won't rise above third in the depth chart, if he makes the team at all.

Who's Who of Spring Invitees

2005-02-08T15:50:00.000-05:00

Getting invited to a tupperware party ain't so great, but these ex-Phillies would never turn down an invitation to spring training.

By Will Travel / BPF Correspondent

I'm fascinated with players that keep playing, holding out hope of keeping the career alive and a chance to put off working a regular job.

I wish these Ex-Phil invitees the best, but you won't be a contender with a rotation of these former STARTING PITCHERS:

- Terry Mulholland, Twins, (PHL 89-93,96)
- Andy Ashby, Padres, (PHL 91-92,00)
- Joe Roa, Pirates, (PHL 02-03)
- Russ Springer, Astros, (PHL 95-96)
- Bruce Chen, Orioles, (PHL 00-01)

Mike Morgan, beware. 27-year-old Chen is already with his 9th different organization.

With that group of starters, you’re certainly going to need these RELIEF PITCHERS:

- Toby Borland, Cards, (PHL 94-96)
- Turk Wendell, Astros, (PHL 01,03)
- Roberto Hernandez, Mets,(PHL 04)
- Jim Crowell, Marlins, (PHL 04)
- Eddie Oropesa, Cubs, (PHL 01)

Toby Borland

And for those of you with really great memories, some LESSER-KNOWN RANDOM HURLERS:

- Kirk Bullinger, Pirates, (PHL 00)
- Matt Whiteside, Blue Jays, (PHL 98).

Still no word on Omar Daal and Valerio de los Santos.

For the fine hurlers we’ve assembled, you need some fine CATCHERS:

- Bobby Estalella, Reds, (PHL 96-99)
- Kelly Stinnett, Diamondbacks, (PHL 03)

Playing very deep, you need the sure-handedness of these OUTFIELDERS

- Midre Cummings, Orioles, (PHL 97)
- Billy McMillon, Red Sox, (PHL 97)

Quite a year for Phillies outfielders in 1997. The Phils used six center fielders, 11 right fielders and eight left fielders.

Do the names Tartabull, Otero, Hudler, Magee, Barron, Daulton, Jeffries, May, Amaro, Butler, Robertson bring back fond memories? How about these PRETTY GOOD OUTFIELDERS:

- Reggie Taylor, Rockies, (PHL 00-01)
- Doug Glanville, Yankees, (PHL 98-02,04)

Sorry, no golden gloves for these INFIELDERS:

- 1b Shawn Wooten, Red Sox,(PHL 04)
- 2b Marlon Anderson, Mets,(PHL 98-02)
- SS Jose Flores, Dodgers (???)

OK, Flores never played in Philadelphia, but he was a farmhand from 94-99, somehow skipping Reading.

Also, Kevin Stocker cannot be located, and Chris Gomez was only a Phil on paper for about 48 hours and David Doster (PHL 96,99) usually gets invited, but because he has been in Mexico playing winter ball, he probably hasn't checked his mailbox recently.

At THIRD BASE:

- 3b Travis Chapman, Reds, (PHL 03)

Yes, Travis played 1 game with 1 AB.

Travis Chapman

If we included ex-Reading Phils the list gets too long, but I'm happy to see the Mets invited ex-BoSox and ex-Reading Phillie Andy, "The Singing Nun" Dominique ... "oh Dominique."

Andy Dominique

I hope I didn't miss anyone, and I am sure some invites are still in the mail.

Will Travel is an avid Phillies fan and global traveler based in Kutztown, Pa. He’s always interested in reading about the strange global pursuits of ex-players. E-mail him at martin@berkleigh.webmail.com.

Charlie says 'Relax'

2005-02-08T14:00:00.000-05:00

Like the cheerful '80s band Frankie Goes to Hollywood, pictured right, Charlie Manuel and the smiling faces of the new Phillies coaching staff are telling players to 'Relax.'

Ken Mandel and Mike Gennaria of mlb.com finally did what I would have done months ago with access to MLB personnel: offer detailed profiles of manager Charlie Manuel and the completely revamped coaching staff.

Imagine going to work to find your boss, your boss's boss, your boss's boss's boss, and his boss replaced by a barbershop quartet.

That's what it could feel like in the Phillies dugout this season. The names Bill Dancy, Mark Bombard and Rich Dubee may not be familiar to fans, but in baseball, they're considered excellent coaching talents with agreeable personalities. In fact, they're already singing the same tune:

Charlie Manuel: "I want our teams to be relaxed, loose and play hard each day,"
Rich Dubee: "I wanted guys that love the game. Guys that can relax, but guys that know the best way to have fun is to win."
Mark Bombard: "I think the big thing is being positive."

Wow. It's enough to bring Eagles fans off suicide watch.

Some critics grumble about players' managers, also saying the new staff lacks major-league experience.

But just as players earn respect and gain experience through the minor league system, it's no different with managers.

First-base coach and former Scranton manager Mark Bombard may not have been a member of the 1980 Phillies, but he was once named minor league manager of the year by USA Today. In fact, his 1,556 career victories leads all active minor league managers, Mandel reported.

Fans won't hear anymore tales of the pitching coach getting into players' heads. New coach Rich Dubee promises to be more hands-off than professor Joe Kerrigan, who reportedly clashed with players and tinkered too often with mechanics. Fans of practical baseball philosophy will appreciate his refreshing approach that stresses location and control.

"We have a good defensive club," he said. "When you look at our infield, it's pretty solid. I hope that's how we attack people - keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, and use [the infielders]."

And how's this for a thoughtful interpretation of Citizen’s Bank Park?

"I think you've got to give a park some time before you say it's a bandbox or it plays small. The fact of the matter is it's our home ballpark. If we keep the ball down and in the middle of the ballpark, we'll be successful."

BPF Take
Never one to believe managers impact the game as a pitcher pitches, a hitter hits, and a fielder fields, I'm going with gut instinct in saying Manuel and company will have a positive impact on performance and keep the Phils loose all season.

Good writing
The staff at MLB.com, including Mandel and Gennaria, are compiling the best damn Phillies writing on the Web these days. Check them out at phillies.com, and see what you think about the new coaching regime and other topics.

Final results of NL East poll

2005-02-07T15:06:00.000-05:00

More than 50 percent of voters thought the offseason acquisition of CF Carlos Beltran will have the greatest impact on the NL East next season.

Beltran was considered by many the prize of free agency, and gives the Mets a much-needed run-producing threat.

85 voters took part in the survey, asking participants to select from 10 offseason moves.

The bulk of first-time participants were directed to the poll from the Mets-themed Always Amazin’ Weblog ... thanks for the link, Jason.

Carlos Delgado earned the second-most votes with 13, followed by Tim Hudson, earning 12 votes, including one from the Berks Phillies Fan.

Here are the final totals:
1. Carlos Beltran: 44
2. Carlos Delgado: 13
3. Tim Hudson: 12
4. Pedro Martinez: 9
5: Charlie Manuel: 3
6: Danny Kolb/John Smoltz: 3*
7: Nationals to Washington: 1
8-10: Jon Lieber, Al Lieter, Esteban Loazia: 0

* 2 votes for negative impact

BPF ranking:
1. Tim Hudson
2. Carlos Delgado
3. (Tie) Charlie Manuel & Pedro Martinez
5: Nationals to Washington
6: (Tie) Carlos Beltran & Jon Lieber
8: Danny Kolb/John Smoltz
9: Al Leiter
10: Esteban Loazia

Spectator injury raises legal questions

2005-02-07T13:25:00.000-05:00

A dentist who was temporarily blinded by a Jimmy Rollins foul ball is seeking $50,000 in damages from the Phillies and the city of Philadelphia. Does he have a case?

The AP reported that Neil Pakett was struck in the face during a 2001 game at Veterans Stadium and said he would have been protected had the backstop met the recommendations set by "Architectural Graphic Standards," and if the backstop had been angled differently. Pakett claims his eyesight is still not fully recovered.

The defense argued that case law dictates that fans take on the responsibility of protecting themselves when they attend sporting events.

BPF take
Pakett's injuries are unfortunate, but are not the fault of the Phillies or the city of Philadelphia.

The path of a baseball is decided by chance. A baseball could theoretically sail anywhere to varying degrees, an understood risk of baseball.

Most baseballs that leave the playing field travel back and out of play, in the area where Pakett was seated and argues should have been protected more had the Phillies followed the recommendations set by "Architectural Graphic Standards."

I searched and couldn't find anything on whether "Architectural Graphic Standards," an illustrated book of building construction, was considered an official guideline for major league backstops.

In reality, there are no mandated stadium safety requirements other than fire exits and capacity restrictions. In fact, stadium operators are not bound to protect or warn spectators from "expected" incidents like foul balls. That means backstops are entirely optional, making the backstop, its size and angle, irrelevant to the case.

Pakett isn't asking for the sky - only $50,000 – but history will prevail in this case. Even if decades of case law were thrown out, an important fact in this report is Pakett "attempted to catch the ball," according to court documents. Small as it may be, there is a difference between catching the ball and protecting yourself.

Writer wins Eagles-themed office contest

2005-02-04T15:33:00.000-05:00

By wearing a custom jersey of former running back Heath Sherman, pictured, J. Michael Weitzel is treated to free lunch.

READING – Berks Phillies Fan J. Michael Weitzel won his office "dress up in Eagles clothing" contest, by wearing a rare, custom-made Heath Sherman jersey from 1992.

"This is an honor I've wanted for a long time," Weitzel said, "This is a fitting tribute to my team, my family, and to running back Heath Sherman."

Sherman played for the Eagles from 1989 to 1993. He rushed for a career-high 685 yards in 1990, and averaged 5.3 yards-per carry in 1992.

In the postseason, Sherman rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown in the Eagles 36-20 win against the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Wildcard.

In 1994, the team cut Sherman after he failed to pass the team physical following major reconstructive knee surgery. He would have entered the second year of a $3 million contract in 1994.

Weitzel's Sherman jersey is home white with kelly-green numbers and stitching. Sherman wore number 23 for the Eagles before cornerback Troy Vincent popularized the number in 1996.

Nicknamed "The Sherman Tank," he was named to the Texas A&M-Kingsville (TAMUK) Athletic Hall of Fame in 1996, an honor he shares with current Eagle offensive lineman Jermaine Mayberry and current Eagles offensive line coach Juan Castillo.

Weitzel was taken to the Wyndham Hotel lunch buffet in Reading.

Unlocking the Heath Sherman archives
For more on Heath Sherman emergence in 1992, click here.

For the story on why he was cut in 1994, click here.